What Went Down At The January Democratic Debate

Bleep bloop … Your favorite robot is here to provide you with some interesting polls during the debate!

Meanwhile, the candidates who didn’t make the debate stage are trying to get some attention (and, apparently, succeeding): https://twitter.com/Mike2020/status/1217254115132235776

Biden is, at least right now, the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination. He leads in national polls and is by far the favorite among black voters. And while most Democratic Party officials aren’t supporting anyone yet, Biden is getting the lion’s share of endorsements, suggesting that key figures in the party think both that the former vice president is the Democrats’ best candidate and that he is likely to win the nomination.

But Biden enters this debate with two obvious challenges. First, a Selzer poll of the Iowa caucuses released on Friday showed effectively a four-way tie for the lead, with Biden in fourth at 15 percent. (However, a Monmouth University poll released on Monday had Biden in first in Iowa, so things are still murky. Our primary forecast currently projects Biden as having the best chance of winning Iowa.) A fourth-place finish in Iowa wouldn’t necessarily damage Biden’s standing in other states, but I’m sure he and his campaign would rather not finish behind all three of the other leading candidates. Secondly, the Trump administration’s decision to kill Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani has meant that the candidates and the media are talking more about foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, which has left Biden, who voted for the Iraq War in 2002, largely on the defensive. Most notably, the former vice president inaccurately suggested to an Iowa voter earlier this month that he had opposed the war from its start.

So will Biden concede his war vote on stage or continue to try to explain it away? Neither approach is ideal for him — Sanders (because he voted against the war) and Buttigieg (because he has made his military service a center of his candidacy), in particular, are likely to attack Biden if he concedes he voted for the war. But at the same time, the other candidates and moderators are likely to be critical of Biden if he tries to suggest he did not vote for the war.

That said, the Iraq discussion, may not matter, even if it’s bad for Biden. He seems to have a strong base of support that is sticking with him, even though he has at times struggled in the debates. Biden’s rivals may decide to sharply attack him — this is the last debate before the Iowa caucuses. But I wonder if some of them realize that Biden’s lackluster debate performances aren’t really bringing his numbers down — and that the best way to defeat him may be to concentrate on winning in Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that Biden losing in those states causes voters in other places to reconsider their support of him, too.