FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

If George Pataki sounds out of touch with contemporary Republicans … it may be because his part of the country has shifted away from the GOP as much as pretty much anywhere else in the U.S. In 1980, when Pataki was first elected mayor of Peekskill in Westchester County, New York, Westchester County voted for Ronald Reagan by 19 percentage points over Jimmy Carter. In 2012, Westchester County voted for Barack Obama by 25 percentage points over Mitt Romney. And in Peekskill itself, Obama won the 2012 election by 44 percentage points.

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