CNN Undercard Republican Debate: Live Coverage

So, just to get meta for a second, following Carl … what does this debate do, FiveThirtyEight team, and for whom? Will this be the last undercard? Thinking of:

To follow up on the question Harry answered before: Based on the formula we use in our Senate forecasts, Cruz’s strongly conservative views would cost the Republicans a net of about 5 percentage points relative to a more moderate, Mitt Romney-esque Republican. That’s a pretty big deal, but not so much that Cruz couldn’t overcome it if national conditions were really poor for Democrats.

Lots of talk of bullies today: ISIS is a bully, Huckabee said, that could be intimidated by being the strongest kid in grade school; Vladimir Putin is a bully, George Pataki said, who could be thwarted with a metaphorical punch in the face. Americans can get behind an anti-bully campaign: In a Rasmussen Reports poll last year, 55 percent of Americans said bullying was a bigger problem than in the past; just 17 percent thought the problem had diminished.