CNN Undercard Republican Debate: Live Coverage

To follow up on the question Harry answered before: Based on the formula we use in our Senate forecasts, Cruz’s strongly conservative views would cost the Republicans a net of about 5 percentage points relative to a more moderate, Mitt Romney-esque Republican. That’s a pretty big deal, but not so much that Cruz couldn’t overcome it if national conditions were really poor for Democrats.

Lots of talk of bullies today: ISIS is a bully, Huckabee said, that could be intimidated by being the strongest kid in grade school; Vladimir Putin is a bully, George Pataki said, who could be thwarted with a metaphorical punch in the face. Americans can get behind an anti-bully campaign: In a Rasmussen Reports poll last year, 55 percent of Americans said bullying was a bigger problem than in the past; just 17 percent thought the problem had diminished.

In a taste of things to come (probably) with Cruz leading some polls in Iowa, Graham has really gone after Cruz and Paul tonight, calling both out by name three times so far: “Now everybody’s on board except Sen. Paul. Sen. Paul and Sen. Cruz are are isolationists. They both want to restrict the ability of the NSA to do the following. Find out if somebody overseas is calling into America.” “We need to fight the war over there. To the people in my party to believe you can withdraw from the battlefield like Sen. Cruz and Paul and we would be safe, you don’t understand this war.” “To my good friend Ted Cruz, please ask him the following question. You say you would keep Assad in power I will tell you that is the worst possible thing that could come out of an American leader’s mouth. It would be disastrous. His favorite movie is apparently ‘Princess Bride.’ Ted, getting in bed with Iran and Russia to save Assad is inconceivable.”