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What Went Down At The CNN Republican Debate
Pursuant to that question about Puerto Rico: Predictwise currently has odds for all Republican primaries and caucuses through March 6 — and Puerto Rico is the only one where Marco Rubio is currently favored. Rubio has gained quite a bit on Trump overall in prediction markets tonight, however.
I’m a “fundamentalist.” I think the biggest factor will be the state of the economy, and that’ll determine how likely a change in party power will be. Candidate factors usually only matter at the margins. But we have a couple of … unconventional situations. Ted Cruz is very conservative, maybe too conservative for the electorate in crucial competitive states like Ohio and Florida. And Trump is, well, Trump. Like most political scientists, most of what I’ve said about Trump has been wrong.
Trump, Rubio and Cruz have had moments tonight when they haven’t exactly looked … presidential. One of them will make it to the general election (presumably); will any of this slap-fighting harm their chances of beating Clinton (presumably)?
