What Went Down At The CNN Democratic Debate

The Associated Press did a poll this winter and asked voters about Sanders’s proposed single-payer health care plan. The survey “found that people’s initial impressions of Sanders’ single-payer plan are more favorable than their views of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul,” according to the AP. But when “asked whether they would continue to support Sanders’ plan if their own taxes went up, under a third of initial supporters of the plan would keep backing it. About 4 out of 10 flipped to opposition.”

The non-partisan Tax Policy Center estimates that Sanders’s tax plan would increase revenue by $15.3 trillion over the next decade. Pretty much everyone would pay more in taxes, but the rich would shoulder by far the largest burden, as Sanders has promised. But it isn’t clear that Sanders’s big tax hikes would cover the cost of his spending proposals.

The candidates appear to have gotten the Iraq question out of the way early tonight. But Clinton’s 2003 vote has followed her through two Democratic primary campaigns. I’ve been struck by how much the legacy of the Iraq War has figured into both parties’ debates.

References to Iraq in the 2008 Democratic debates

DEBATE DATE
April 26, 2007	40	–
June 3, 2007	39	–
June 28, 2007	8	–
July 23, 2007	52	–
Aug. 7, 2007	50	–
Aug. 19, 2007	24	–
Sept. 9, 2007	32	–
Sept. 26, 2007	59	–
Oct. 30, 2007	44	–
Nov. 15, 2007	39	–
Dec. 4, 2007	26	–
Dec. 13, 2007	14	–
Jan. 5, 2008	25	–
Jan. 15, 2008	26	–
Jan. 21, 2008	27	–
Jan. 31, 2008	28	–
Feb. 21, 2008	12	–
Feb. 26, 2008	27	–
April 16, 2008	27	–

References to Iraq in the 2016 Democratic debates

DEBATE
Oct. 13, 2015	17	–
Nov. 14, 2015	25	–
Dec. 19, 2015	14	–
Jan 17, 2016	7	–
Feb. 4, 2016	16	–
Feb. 11, 2016	6	–
March 6, 2016	1	–
March 9, 2016	2	–
April 14, 2016	?

The tables here show how many times the word “Iraq” came up in the 2008 and 2016 Democratic nomination debates. Not surprisingly, we see a lot more of it in 2008, when it was the central foreign policy question. In 2016, other foreign policy issues — like ISIS, Russia and the aftermath of the Arab Spring — have also driven the discussion. But the early part of 2016 looks much like the end of the 2008 season in terms of the raw numbers of references. And both years display similar patterns: more Iraq references in the earlier debates and fewer mentions after the new year — and the start of the primary voting.