Republican Presidential Debate: Live Coverage

Carly Fiorina says household incomes have been stagnant for 40 years. Not quite. It’s true that, on paper, median household income is about where it was in the late 1980s, which would represent 25 years of stagnation (though not 40). But factor in the shrinking size of the typical American family and it’s really been more like 15 years of stagnation. That’s still bad, but it isn’t quite 40 years, either.

Marco Rubio says his greatest weakness — though he isn’t sure it’s a weakness — is his optimism. He believes this country’s best days are ahead of it. Most of the people I’ve talked to in Iowa agree. Maybe that’s because the economy here is comparatively strong. But even as I’ve heard plenty of worry about the direction of the country, I’ve also heard consistent optimism about the long-term opportunities for their children.

A lack of self-awareness.

What’s your biggest weakness?

The debate will be available to watch live online at CNBC.com and on CNBC’s mobile and Apple TV apps. But all those options require cable subscription authentication or CNBC PRO membership. So, for pure cord-cutters who don’t have a friend’s aunt’s cable login, CNBC PRO is your best option. It’ll cost you a bit, but the membership card will impress your friends and get you a 15 percent discount at many steakhouses.

A month or two ago, we were skeptical about the notion that Hillary Clinton’s campaign was in trouble. Instead, she was in more of a self-reinforcing (but temporary) funk brought on by negative news coverage about her email server, her declining poll numbers, and the possibility that Vice President Joe Biden might enter the race. Once the news cycle moved on to other topics — and Clinton gave reporters something else to talk about with her strong performance at this month’s Democratic debate — her numbers recovered quickly. Could Jeb Bush be in a similar funk? Has he become undervalued as a candidate? (Betting markets now give him only about a 16 percent chance of winning the nomination.) Bush has undoubtedly been getting horrible media coverage lately, including stories about silly topics like his personal demeanor and “energy level.” But Bush’s case isn’t comparable to Clinton’s. His fundamentals are much weaker. Whereas Clinton always led the Democratic field in national polls, and had near-universal support from the party establishment, neither of those things is true for Bush. He never had more than about 15 percent of the vote in national surveys. Although Bush narrowly leads the Republican field in major endorsements, he has only one-tenth as many as Clinton, and most of those endorsements came early in the race (he’s received just two since Labor Day). A further problem for Bush: unlike Clinton, whose policy positions are right in the middle of the Democratic party, Bush’s are to the left of most Republicans. And because Bush’s favorability ratings are mediocre among general election voters, he doesn’t have sterling “electability” credentials either. Alternatives like Marco Rubio are arguably both more conservative and more electable. So I’m on the side that says tonight’s debate is important for Bush, and that a poor performance could perpetuate his “death spiral.” Periods of negative news coverage are something almost every campaign has to endure. But they can separate the strong candidates from the weak ones — and it’s not clear that Republicans had all that much reason to be excited about Bush in the first place.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/659521649767657472

Because the other traditional “establishment” candidates — the type that have traditionally won nominations — have faded (Jeb Bush) or are gone completely (Scott Walker). Rubio hasn’t risen in the horse-race polls yet, but he continues to be the most popular (by net favorability) of all the establishment candidates.

Americans consistently rate the economy as one of the most important issues facing the country, if not the most important one. But the economy has been strangely absent from the first two Republican debates (it didn’t get all that much air time in the first Democratic debate, either). Tonight, that should change. Financial news network CNBC is hosting the debate, and they’ve pledged to put economic issues front and center. The economy poses an interesting challenge for Republican candidates. By pretty much any measure, the economy is better today than it was when President Obama took office nearly seven years ago. The unemployment rate is down to 5.1 percent, job growth has been steady, and the stock market has more than regained the ground lost in the financial crisis. Overall economic growth has been slow but relatively consistent — a vast improvement over the crippling recession in 2008 to 2009. Yet for all the improvement, many Americans still feel that the recovery is leaving them behind. More jobs haven’t translated into higher incomes for the typical American family, and wage growth has been anemic. Many young Americans are struggling with crippling student loan debt, while many older workers are ill-prepared for retirement. In other words, there’s plenty of fodder for Republicans. But there’s also danger. The recession, after all, began on President George W. Bush’s watch, and the stagnation in middle-class incomes long predates Obama. The challenge, then, is for Republicans to tap into the deep well of dissatisfaction with today’s economy while presenting solutions that sound original, not like a retread of the mid-2000s.

I’m watching tonight’s debate from Davenport, Iowa, where I’ve spent the past several days talking to local residents about the economy and the election. Iowa came through the recession much better than most of the country partly because of strong crop prices. And although the agriculture sector has slowed a bit recently, the economy here is still pretty good by most metrics — new data released today showed the unemployment rate in the area at 5 percent, and the rate is even lower for Iowa as a whole. In conversations this week, Iowans voiced many of the same concerns I’ve heard from voters in other parts of the country — competition from overseas, the national debt, taxes and regulation — but relatively few expressed fears about their personal situation. The one thing I heard most consistently from voters here was that they are sick of the circus in Washington and they want a nominee — and ultimately a president — who can focus on getting things done. “People want some change. They’re sick and tired with the inability of Washington to get things done and lead the country,” Kent Pilcher, who runs a construction company, told me. “I think most people would like to hear how will you convince Congress to pass a meaningful budget that will accomplish the things we need to do for the long-term interest of the country.” The problem, of course, is getting people to agree on what those long-term solutions should be. Cyndi Diercks, who helped lead a local tea party group here, said she wants someone who will abolish Obamacare, eliminate the departments of Education and Homeland Security (among others), return the United States to the gold standard and audit the Federal Reserve. Judy Davidson, the chairwoman of the local Republican Party, wants someone who, above all else, can beat Hillary Clinton in November 2016. Those two visions are unlikely to be compatible.

Will the two-track GOP primary merge in tonight’s debate? We recently chatted about how it feels like the Republican presidential primary has split into two parallel contests: the Carson-Trump “outsider” primary and the Rubio-Bush “establishment” primary. In the end, one wing will have to prevail, but first we may see the candidates mostly competing within their respective lanes — and that could make for some interesting inter-candidate dynamics in tonight’s debate. Does Jeb Bush feel like he even needs to bother with Ben Carson or Donald Trump, or will he just focus on Marco Rubio? And now that Trump’s support has dipped in the polls — he’s behind Carson, someone in his own lane, no less — how will he respond?

Nine governors — former and current — entered the Republican primary. Two have already dropped out: Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Rick Perry of Texas. The seven remaining in the field haven’t combined to get the support of even 20 percent of Republicans over the last month in an average of the five most recent national polls. The governors in the field were regularly combining for about 40 percent of support over the summer. The most popular Republican ex-governor, Jeb Bush of Florida, has dropped below 10 percent support nationally. Three of the seven haven’t cleared the threshold of polling popularity set by CNBC for inclusion in the main debate tonight: Undercard debaters Bobby Jindal (Louisiana) and George Pataki (New York); and Jim Gilmore of Virginia, whose 0-percent polling average leaves him off tonight’s slate entirely. Democratic voters have been even less enthusiastic about governors. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island dropped out after flatlining — Gilmoreing? — in the polls. That leaves Martin O’Malley of Maryland, who hasn’t polled above 5 percent nationally. Governors were supposed to be the beneficiaries of 2016 voters’ anti-establishment sentiments. “There’s a reason why so many governors and former governors are running for president,” U.S. News and World Report wrote in July. “Voters are disenchanted with the status quo and fed up with the dysfunction in Washington, and the governors pledge to bring a healthy outsider’s perspective to the capital.” Some support for governors has shifted to candidates without experience in elected office, mainly Ben Carson and Donald Trump. But a couple of U.S. senators, creatures of a widely disliked Congress, have held up better in the polls. Marco Rubio of Florida has moved ahead of Bush and the other governors, while Ted Cruz of Texas leads all the governors besides Bush. And the Democratic race is dominated by two products of the Senate: Hillary Clinton of New York and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

More re: the debates being on cable, which more people, especially Millennials, are eschewing. CNBC raised its ad rates to a cool $250,000 for a 30 second spot for tonight’s debate, compared to the typical $50,000. And CNN raised its ad rates 4,000 percent for its September GOP debate, from about $5,000 for a 30 second spot to $200,000. They won big in the ratings — 23 million viewers, when their typical primetime ratings are typically less than 600,000 viewers.

Before this campaign, the largest TV audience for any primary debate was 10.7 million viewers. Each debate so far in this cycle has shattered that mark. The August Republican debate on Fox News drew 24 million viewers, and the one in September on CNN drew 23.1 million. CNN’s Democratic debate wasn’t quite as popular (no Donald Trump on stage) — just 15.8 million watched — but it was still a new record for Democratic primary debates.

	REPUBLICANS		DEMOCRATS
VIEWERS	AUG.	SEPT.	OCT.
Female	49%	49%	49%
Male	52	51	52
Median Age	60	60	61
Non-Hispanic White	85	81	76
Non-Hispanic Black	6	8	11
Non-Hispanic Other	5	5	7
Hispanic	5	6	7
Median household income	$74,600	$73,700	$74,300

The typical primary viewer so far this year has looked similar no matter which party’s candidates are on stage. Each debate’s audience had a median age of around 60 and a median household income of about $74,000. And 49 percent of viewers for each debate were women. More of the viewers for the Republican debates have been non-Hispanic whites.

We’ll have to wait a little longer to find out what the moderators will ask at the main event, but the undercard debate was dominated by tax and budget questions. Four questions were about tax policy, three on the new federal budget deal, and two specifically on Louisiana’s budget crisis. The only other topic to come up more than once was immigration policy (three times).

Monday: Carson overtakes Trump in a number of Iowa polls. Tuesday: Carson overtakes Trump in a CBS/New York Times national poll. Wednesday: Carson takes the stage as the new front-runner (sort of). Pretty solid start to the week! https://abcnews.go.com/video/55816552

Trying to predict The Donald isn’t the easiest thing to do, but he seems to have religion on his mind recently. Trump contrasted his religious upbringing with that of chief rival Ben Carson on Saturday. Trump told a crowd of supporters that “I’m Presbyterian. … Boy, that’s down the middle of the road, folks, in all fairness. I mean, Seventh-day Adventist, I don’t know about. I just don’t know about.” Carson, of course, is a Seventh-day Adventist, and some thought Trump was attacking Carson’s faith. Trump went the religious route again on Tuesday in Iowa. Trump noted, “First of all, I am a great Christian. And I do well with the evangelicals, but the evangelicals let me down a little bit this month. I don’t know what I did.” His campaign handed out cards with a picture of his Confirmation during the same rally. His quote Tuesday tells us why Trump is speaking about religion so much: the polls. Trump is suddenly trailing in Iowa and in one prominent national survey — surpassed by Carson, who is doing well among Republicans who identify as born again or evangelical Christian. The latest Quinnipiac poll out of Iowa, for example, has Carson at 36 percent among born-again/evangelical Christians to Trump’s 17 percent. The CBS/New York Times national poll has Carson at 35 percent among them to to Trump’s 13 percent. As we know, Trump cares about polls. He talked about them endlessly when he was the front-runner. Now that he’s behind, expect him to say the word “god” more than a few times tonight.

We’re getting into a really important stage of the Republican primary campaign. Tonight’s main-stage GOP debate and the next, coming up in a couple of weeks, should help sort out a few fundamental questions about the campaign: Does the Republican primary have a new front-runner? Ben Carson has clearly overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, and Carson edged in front of Trump in the latest CBS News/New York Times national survey. But we don’t know how long the Carson surge will last, or if he’s an Iowa-only candidate or someone with national appeal. Tonight’s debate could reverse Carson’s rise or extend it. Is it curtains for Jeb Bush? The GOP establishment is in shambles (maybe?) and now its standard-bearer is, too. Bush doesn’t have much support or money; he’s in trouble. What could he do tonight to get a boost? Your guess is as good as mine. (John Kasich and Carly Fiorina are in the same boat, for the most part.) The Marco Rubio surge is definitely coming, right? Ditto for Ted Cruz. Rubio has so much potential. He has appeal across the party — tea party cred and establishment bona fides. But he’s playing a long game. Could Cruz instead move to the front of the “outsider” pack? What’s the deal with Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee? Don’t be surprised if these candidates with little support in the polls start dropping out.