Updated 11:09 PM | Oct. 7, 2015How The Cubs Won The NL Wild-Card GameFiveThirtyEightFiled under 2015 MLB Playoffs Chadwick Matlin 10:01 pm That double play at the end of the inning was very costly for the Pirates. Their win probability dropped from 18.1 percent with the bases loaded to 4.9 percent after the double play. × The best of FiveThirtyEight, delivered to you. Thanks for subscribing!You should receive a confirmation in your inbox shortly. Error: {{data}}. Email Address Morning Distribution (Daily) Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight. Top Stories Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top stories last week. Politics Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories last week. Popular Stories Busting 4 Major Myths About Referees In The NBA Playoffs These 3 Former MLB Prospects Have Gone From Busts To Busting Out Can Anyone Stop The Big, Bad Bruins?