With a 4-0 lead, the Cubs are well-positioned to pull out the win in this wild-card game. FanGraphs win probability has the Cubs as more than a 90 percent favorite to win at the moment. But even that may be conservative: The Cubs boast one of the best bullpens in the majors (fourth by fWAR), and they will use as many relievers as necessary to get the win in this do-or-die game. It’s likely that the 90 percent win probability we currently assign them is, if anything, conservative. It should be more like 95 percent.
