FiveThirtyEight
Ben Lindbergh

Managerial Meddling

Last week I updated my “Managerial Meddling Index,” a measure of how often managers make in-game moves, compared with their peers in the same league. Tonight’s managers, the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle and the Cubs’ Joe Maddon, are among the majors’ most active managers, ranking fifth and sixth, respectively, in total tactical activity. Both managers are among the most likely to signal for replay reviews: Maddon has initiated 49 challenges, the most in the National League. Maddon is also the most likely to hit and run, the fourth-most-likely to pinch-hit, and the third-most-aggressive when it comes to pulling starters before they face hitters for the third time in a game. (Thus far it hasn’t looked like he’ll need to do it for Arrieta.) Hurdle is the manager most likely to pinch run and insert substitutes on defense, as well as one of the most aggressive infield shifters. But he has a slower hook with his starters, at least in games that aren’t do-or-die. Obviously, many of these moves depend on the personnel at a skipper’s disposal, and the ratings are more descriptive than prescriptive: They can tell us what moves a manager makes, but not whether he’s right to make them. As this game goes deeper, though, know that neither manager will hesitate to start flipping switches if he perceives a potential edge.

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