How The Cubs Won The NL Wild-Card Game

It’s official: the Chicago Cubs have survived the wild-card gantlet. With the victory, they’re now the second-best team in baseball according to our Elo ratings (behind the Toronto Blue Jays). That makes them narrowly favored to win their next series against the division-rival St. Louis Cardinals: Elo says they have a 51.6 percent probability of going on to the National League Championship Series. It also makes them favorites to represent the National League in the World Series. Elo gives Chicago a 28 percent chance of winning the NL pennant, as well as nearly a 15 percent chance of winning it all. Then again, Elo doesn’t account for curses.