How The Cubs Won The NL Wild-Card Game

It’s official: the Chicago Cubs have survived the wild-card gantlet. With the victory, they’re now the second-best team in baseball according to our Elo ratings (behind the Toronto Blue Jays). That makes them narrowly favored to win their next series against the division-rival St. Louis Cardinals: Elo says they have a 51.6 percent probability of going on to the National League Championship Series. It also makes them favorites to represent the National League in the World Series. Elo gives Chicago a 28 percent chance of winning the NL pennant, as well as nearly a 15 percent chance of winning it all. Then again, Elo doesn’t account for curses.

Good news for the Cubs as they watch their ace, Jake Arrieta, finish off a complete game. He has been just as good with four days’ rest throughout his career as he has with five days off between starts — and far better in 2015 after four days off than after five. Bad news for the Cubs: Arrieta would need to sit out until Game 3 of the National League Division Series against the Cardinals to get four days’ rest. Last year’s NL wild-card-winning ace, Madison Bumgarner, also didn’t pitch again until Game 3 of the division series, but his rotation mates stepped up and helped him lift the Giants to the NLCS.