How The Cubs Won The NL Wild-Card Game

The Pirates ended each of the last two innings by grounding into double plays. Turning double plays isn’t the Cubs’ forte — they ranked near the bottom of the majors with just 121 in the regular season, about three every four games. And Arrieta induced just 15 double plays, in part because so few batters reached base against him to create double-play opportunities. But there’s more to infield defense than double plays, and the Cubs were above average defensively at every infield position. Tinkers, Evers and Chance would be proud.

Things look bleak for the Pirates, with a 2.9 percent win probability as of the top of the eighth. But remember last year’s Royals! They fought back to beat the A’s in the wild-card game last year after falling to a 2.9 percent win probability in the seventh.

According to win probability added, the Pirates were one of the clutchest hitting teams in the National League during the regular season. Yup.