How The Cubs Won The NL Wild-Card Game

Last week I updated my “Managerial Meddling Index,” a measure of how often managers make in-game moves, compared with their peers in the same league. Tonight’s managers, the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle and the Cubs’ Joe Maddon, are among the majors’ most active managers, ranking fifth and sixth, respectively, in total tactical activity. Both managers are among the most likely to signal for replay reviews: Maddon has initiated 49 challenges, the most in the National League. Maddon is also the most likely to hit and run, the fourth-most-likely to pinch-hit, and the third-most-aggressive when it comes to pulling starters before they face hitters for the third time in a game. (Thus far it hasn’t looked like he’ll need to do it for Arrieta.) Hurdle is the manager most likely to pinch run and insert substitutes on defense, as well as one of the most aggressive infield shifters. But he has a slower hook with his starters, at least in games that aren’t do-or-die. Obviously, many of these moves depend on the personnel at a skipper’s disposal, and the ratings are more descriptive than prescriptive: They can tell us what moves a manager makes, but not whether he’s right to make them. As this game goes deeper, though, know that neither manager will hesitate to start flipping switches if he perceives a potential edge.

What was bad for Pirates starter Gerrit Cole in the top of the first inning (single followed by a single and then double play) got worse when he again faced the top third of the Cubs lineup in the top of the third: a single followed by a home run and a walk. Typically, starting pitchers this season were about 3 percent worse the second time through the order. Cole, though, has bucked that trend during his career; on average he has been 16 percent better his second time through the lineup (if you judge by OPS). Not tonight, though. He might not make it all the way through the Chicago order a second time: Clint Hurdle already had Jared Hughes warming up before Cole got out of his third-inning jam. Hurdle can’t be patient with Cole with Arrieta looking sharp so far. The Cubs haven’t given up more than two runs in any of Arrieta’s last seven starts.

Don’t expect Jake Arrieta to squander this lead. In 58 starts since 2014, the Cubs pitcher has allowed more than three runs only nine times (16 percent) — and zero times since June 16. If the Pirates are going to come back, they’ll probably have to do it against Chicago’s bullpen.