How The Cubs Won The NL Wild-Card Game

What was bad for Pirates starter Gerrit Cole in the top of the first inning (single followed by a single and then double play) got worse when he again faced the top third of the Cubs lineup in the top of the third: a single followed by a home run and a walk. Typically, starting pitchers this season were about 3 percent worse the second time through the order. Cole, though, has bucked that trend during his career; on average he has been 16 percent better his second time through the lineup (if you judge by OPS). Not tonight, though. He might not make it all the way through the Chicago order a second time: Clint Hurdle already had Jared Hughes warming up before Cole got out of his third-inning jam. Hurdle can’t be patient with Cole with Arrieta looking sharp so far. The Cubs haven’t given up more than two runs in any of Arrieta’s last seven starts.

Don’t expect Jake Arrieta to squander this lead. In 58 starts since 2014, the Cubs pitcher has allowed more than three runs only nine times (16 percent) — and zero times since June 16. If the Pirates are going to come back, they’ll probably have to do it against Chicago’s bullpen.

In my NL playoff preview, I mentioned that young hitters are outperforming their projections to an unprecedented degree this year. Kyle Schwarber, who slammed a two-run dinger in the top of the third, embodies that for the Cubs. With a projected on-base plus slugging of .683 and an actual OPS of .842, Schwarber has proven an unexpected (but dependable) source of hits for the Cubs.