In my NL playoff preview, I mentioned that young hitters are outperforming their projections to an unprecedented degree this year. Kyle Schwarber, who slammed a two-run dinger in the top of the third, embodies that for the Cubs. With a projected on-base plus slugging of .683 and an actual OPS of .842, Schwarber has proven an unexpected (but dependable) source of hits for the Cubs.
Neil Paine
The Pirates and Cubs are among the best non-division-winners of all time (the Pirates’ 98 wins tie them for sixth all time among non-division-winners; the Cubs’ 97 ties for 10th). That had me wondering whether this year’s NL Central was one of the strongest divisions all time. One way to measure that: divisions with the strongest two runners-up since divisional play began in 1969.
Somewhat surprisingly, this year’s NL Central doesn’t rank among the top 10 historically. Perhaps that stems from the Cubs’ sudden rise in 2015 — at least some of the team’s combined Elo results from the below-average 1484 rating it carried into the season.
Carl Bialik
Swing And A Miss
Just before Jake Arrieta waved feebly at strike three to start the top of the third, TBS announcers talked up his offense, citing his two home runs this year. Those are the first two of his career, and he was so bad in his other 81 plate appearances (including 45 strikeouts) that most of his significant offensive rate stats — including on-base percentage plus slugging — were down from his marks last year and in his career.
