FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

I want to note something about Martin O’Malley, who is often an afterthought. Even if he is having a good night, he needs to be having two dozen great nights to really get into this race. O’Malley’s only at 3.8 percent in the Iowa polls. That’s far behind Clinton at 50.1 percent. To get any delegates at district and county level, he needs to be hitting 15 percent. Otherwise, he earns no delegates.
Nate Silver

Also, a black voter doesn’t help you if she doesn’t turn up at the polls.
Harry Enten

My belief, Farai, is you never take any vote for granted. You work for every vote. Yes, more blacks and Latinos will vote for the Democratic candidate, but winning 95 percent of the black vote as President Obama did versus 88 percent as John Kerry did in 2004 can be the difference between winning and losing.

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