CBS Republican Debate: Live Coverage

According to an CBS News poll released in October, George W. Bush had a 67 percent favorable rating among Republicans. His unfavorable rating was just 8 percent.

Harry, Nate mentioned that a majority of Republicans still support the decision to invade Iraq. Trump was also going after George W. Bush — I take it he’s remembered pretty fondly by Republicans, too?

It’s interesting that the debate tonight has turned into a referendum on the Bush years, with Trump going hard against Jeb Bush and his family — and being thoroughly booed when he said “the World Trade Center came down” because President George W. Bush “didn’t listen to the advice of the CIA.” In many ways, the Democratic race has become a referendum on the Bill Clinton years. For very different reasons, both presidencies (Bush’s and Clinton’s) are being dissected, and I expect this to carry through the remaining debates and the race.

Trump’s increasingly vocal opposition to the Iraq War is not in line with the position of Republican voters. According to a May 2015 Quinnipiac poll, 62 percent of Republicans said going to war in Iraq in 2003 was the right thing to do, while 28 percent said it was the wrong thing.

“It took him five days before his people told him what to say.” In his attack on Jeb Bush and his position on the Iraq War, Trump is picking up on the strategy of Chris Christie (may his campaign rest in peace), calling out fellow candidates for scripted remarks. This campaign has become more and more involved in the narrative of the outsider pricking the bubble of what Ted Cruz calls “the Washington cartel” — the stump speech/scripted remarks call-outs are just the latest 2016 craze.

Americans’ view of the biggest threat they face changes all the time. Last April, 68 percent of respondents to a CNN/ORC poll said ISIS is a very serious threat, much higher than Iran (39 percent), Russia (32 percent) and North Korea (32 percent). In a Gallup poll the year before, 20 percent said China is the country that is the greatest enemy of the U.S., more than the 16 percent who named North Korea (or Korea) and the same percentage who named Iran.

Do we have a ranking of which countries Americans are most afraid of?

https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/698696787113156608

It seems to me like Trump’s beef with Bush is personal rather than strategic, at least at this point. In fact, Trump should probably be rooting for Bush to do relatively well in South Carolina to keep the “establishment lane” muddled for some time.

Nate, why is Trump going after Jeb!?

I mean, sure. There is the libertarian wing, but it’s quite small right now. According to a December 2015 Quinnipiac poll, 75 percent of Republicans support sending group troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Just 17 percent were opposed.

Harry, is there any constituency among GOP primary voters for a more restrained foreign policy?

https://twitter.com/alec_h_tyson/status/698695543577444352

In a race that’s lacking a candidate who seems inevitable, I think the question of Supreme Court nominations is useful in affecting a statesman’s pose. It could be a boon for someone like Marco Rubio if he comes across as thoughtful or knowledgeable about the process.

I’m of the view that it will be a major issue in both the general election and the primary. Unlike some one-off events, it’s not a one-and-done story, at least until Scalia’s replacement is chosen. And that may not happen until the next president is elected.

I mean, this only matters in the primary if there is a thought that one of the candidates is somehow different from the others when it comes to Supreme Court nominations. I tend to think that all the guys on the stage tonight (perhaps with the exception of Trump) would nominate a rock-solid conservative.

Seems like more of a general election issue than a primary issue — for the presidential race, and for contested Senate seats. If, that is, no one is confirmed by then.

So this open Supreme Court seat is going to be a big story of the next several days, but how big of an issue will it be for Republican voters in South Carolina? How about beyond?

The Republican candidates are talking about how to handle a potential replacement on the Supreme Court for Antonin Scalia. I just wrote about what type of nominee President Obama could get through the Republican-controlled Senate. My research indicates that only a moderate or perhaps a very well-qualified mainstream Democrat could get confirmed given the current partisan climate, while a nominee like Elena Kagan or Sonia Sotomayor would have a very difficult time. But as Donald Trump indicated in his remarks, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is likely to try to stop any nominee from coming up for a vote.

https://twitter.com/RustyKJr/status/698688354888478722 A: I would think Ted Cruz or Donald Trump. Cruz is very conservative ideologically, and history suggests that would cost him a few votes. Trump isn’t as extreme in the traditional left-right ideological sense, but he is extreme in his style. I’m not sure that would matter, but it could.

Q: Who has the most to gain from attacking Donald Trump tonight? — Björn Holm A: Trump is the front-runner, and everyone would benefit from attacking him. Any candidate still operating under the assumption that a stronger Trump will somehow help his own chances ought to fire his strategist.

Up until now, the most important breaking news stories to affect the presidential campaign were probably the terrorist attacks in Paris and in San Bernardino, California. Those events potentially boosted support for Donald Trump, since he had been more focused than the other Republican candidates on ISIS and national security. Indeed, Trump rose from around 27 percent in national polls before those attacks to about 32 percent afterward. The latest breaking news of the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, however, poses more risks for Trump because it could turn Republican voters’ focus to “values” issues: social and Constitutional questions on which Trump does not have a reliably conservative record. The open seat to be filled on the court could also make “electability” more important for the presidential candidates, especially with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and other Republicans saying that Scalia’s seat should sit vacant until the next president is picked. The entrance poll in Iowa and the exit poll in New Hampshire asked Republican voters which qualities they think are most important in a candidate. The exit poll question isn’t a perfect one — voters may decide upon their candidate before they decide on his preferred qualities, rather than the other way around. But it provides at least a little bit of insight. In Iowa, Ted Cruz won 38 percent among voters who said they cared most about a candidate who “shared their values,” while Trump took just 5 percent. Cruz also beat Trump in the “values” category in New Hampshire despite his poor performance overall.

How Iowa Republicans who cared most about a given candidate quality voted

MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY	TRUMP	CRUZ	RUBIO
Shares my values	5	38	21
Can win in November	24	22	44
Other attributes	46	19	12

How New Hampshire Republicans who cared most about a given candidate quality voted

MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY	TRUMP	CRUZ	RUBIO
Shares my values	12	21	13
Can win in November	33	6	29
Other attributes	50	7	5

Electability is a somewhat more complicated case. Voters who said they care most about a candidate who can win in November have tended to look favorably upon Marco Rubio. But this isn’t a bad category for Trump, necessarily. True, he has the worst favorability ratings among the Republican candidates and usually fares worse than Rubio or Cruz in hypothetical matchups against Hillary Clinton. But some Republican voters will see a candidate who’s leading in the polls and who just won New Hampshire as a winner instead.

With all the fighting between Marco Rubio and both Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush, it’s sometimes difficult to remember that none of these candidates is leading in South Carolina. According to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, Donald Trump is the clear favorite for next Saturday’s primary. Our polls-only forecast gives him a 79 percent chance to win, while our polls-plus forecast gives him a 67 percent chance.

These percentages may seem low considering that Trump holds a very large lead in the polls. The FiveThirtyEight average has him up 17 percentage points over Cruz, his nearest competitor. Remember, though, that in 2012 Newt Gingrich, the eventual winner, was polling in the low 20s only five days before the primary. He ended up with 40 percent of the vote. There is enough time for one Trump’s opponents to catch him. Gingrich considered the turning point in the 2012 primary to be a debate confrontation he had with moderator Juan Williams. That’s why tonight is so important — this is the final chance for other members of the GOP field to go after Trump in a debate before the voting takes place next Saturday. If they don’t make an impression, Trump will be on his way to winning two primaries in a row. And given the delegate allocation rules of the South Carolina primary, he’ll also win a majority — if not all — of the delegates coming out of the state.

It had already seemed as though tonight’s Republican debate might be the most important one of the election cycle. The drama hinged on two main questions. First, would the other Republican candidates finally turn up the heat on Donald Trump, who has come under relatively little direct criticism so far from other campaigns despite being the front-runner? And second, could Marco Rubio rebound after a poor performance in the last debate that sent the media into a tizzy and may have sent late-deciders in New Hampshire scurrying to other candidates? But unpredictable news events have a way of making even the biggest political “game changers” seem small by comparison. The death this morning of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, which leaves the court in a 4-4 deadlock and which will touch off a ferocious battle between President Obama and the Republican-led Senate about a potential replacement, will be the first thing on voters’ minds tonight and for the next several weeks. At first glance, Ted Cruz might seem to have the most to gain from an increased focus on social and Constitutional issues. Trump might have the most at risk, almost by default because he was leading before Scalia’s death. We’ll be covering all of that and more on our live blog tonight; the debate starts at 9 p.m. on CBS News. if you have a question or comment, leave it here or tweet us @FiveThirtyEight.

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