FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

Commercial break diversion! Check out our interactive map of where the candidates are earning Facebook likes:
Nate Silver

I’m seeing mixed reactions to Donald Trump’s performance from pundits, who are variously suggesting that tonight’s debate is a meltdown for Trump and claiming it could help him instead. My personal view, for whatever it’s worth, is fairly close to that of Philip Klein of the Washington Examiner. Trump’s attacks on the Iraq War and George W. Bush and his defense of Planned Parenthood and eminent domain may help him with his base. But these are unpopular positions among the broader Republican electorate and they may simultaneously lower Trump’s ceiling.
Simone Landon

Bush is touting his economic record as governor of Florida. We have a handy guide for evaluating the economic records of governors who want to be president.

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