CBS Republican Debate: Live Coverage

John Kasich, who ran explicitly as a moderate in New Hampshire and who is defending his expansion of Medicaid tonight, is not a terribly natural fit for South Carolina. But with an open primary, the state’s electorate isn’t quite as conservative as you might think. In 2012, 32 percent of Republican voters in South Carolina identified as moderate or liberal, placing it exactly halfway in between Iowa (17 percent) and New Hampshire (47 percent). CORRECTION (10:14 p.m.): An earlier version of this post incorrectly said that Kasich defended his expansion of Medicare in Ohio. He expanded Medicaid, not Medicare.

I’m stuck comparing two very different men: Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza who led the GOP pack in October 2011, and Ben Carson, who also once led the Republican race, but whose poll numbers fell quickly after he fumbled a response to a debate question about the terrorist attacks in Paris. Carson’s poll numbers are now languishing in the single digits; he’s had a series of staff shake-ups; he was rumored to be dropping out but has not yet. So in two election cycles, black Republican candidates have peaked early and then fallen far. The question is why? Is there a desire in the GOP electorate for a more diverse field? I don’t have the answer, but you can’t avoid the question.

I’ve noticed that the conservative Republicans in my Twitter feed seem to think that Rubio has been doing reasonably well, while the liberals are still making Rubio robot jokes. The truth is I don’t think he’s stood out that much in the first 45 minutes — Trump vs. Bush has been the lead story instead. So the question becomes whether Rubio needs a big moment tonight or whether passing through with an average debate would be helpful enough to him.