What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

It can be tricky to guess the final margin because of the difficulty of estimating the margin of the remaining election day and late-arriving mail ballots. But for what it’s worth, betting markets currently suggest that the recall is favored to fail by more than 20 percentage points. In that case, the polling average will have underestimated Newsom by at least a few points. But we’ll have to wait a while until we get the final margin, since late-arriving mail ballots can take weeks to count.