FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

And so while ABC News and other outlets have projected that the recall vote will fail, one thing to point out is that Question 2 on the ballot — who should replace Newsom — is essentially moot. As such, it will not be projected by the ABC News Decision Desk. That said, it seems as if Elder was leading on that question with more than 40 percent of the vote.


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