FiveThirtyEight
Maya Sweedler

Considering this election is unlikely to be another 12.1-million vote affair, I don’t see Newsom replicating his 2018 margin. I imagine Democrats would be happy with a margin in the mid-teens. But if Republicans can use this election to sniff out Newsom’s weaknesses — say, waning support for the governor in the Central Valley or perhaps turning out persuadable voters in Orange County or other once-Republican strongholds — well, that could be a win.


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