What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

I don’t know, Nathaniel. As we’ve written previously, this was a hard race to poll, with it being held at an irregular time and the fact that a lot of votes have been cast by mail. It wouldn’t be that unusual for the polls to be off by at least a few points from what our final polling average said. Newsom certainly would want a healthy single-digit margin (think +8 points), but I think even that could be a strong performance for him when this is all said and done.