What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

The early exit polls also indicate that Elder is fairly unpopular among voters, with just 34 percent viewing him favorably and 49 percent viewing him unfavorably. That’s in contrast to the winner of the 2003 recall election, Schwarzenegger, who had a 50 percent – 45 percent favorability rating heading into that election. Two things stand out here, both good for Newsom. First, that 83 percent of voters have an opinion on Elder, who until a few months ago was not well-known outside of conservative circles, suggests that the Newsom team was able to effectively define him negatively. Second, it suggests that Democrats bet right when they declined to put up a replacement candidate.

With an unpopular Elder leading the polls and no big-name Democrat to vote for, Democratic voters really do have a binary choice: Newsom or Elder, and they don’t want Elder. In 2003, voters had Bustamante or they had Schwarzenegger, who didn’t seem so bad, either.