What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

After all that hubbub, it was over relatively quickly: Our colleagues at the ABC News Decision Desk projected that the recall would fail at 11:37 p.m. Eastern, barely half an hour after polls closed. As of this writing, 67 percent of voters voted against the recall, and 33 percent voted for it. That margin will almost certainly narrow as more votes are counted (the numbers we have right now are mostly mail ballots, which lean very Democratic), but it’s still likely that Newsom will survive by a large margin, perhaps even comparable to his 24-point win in 2018.

About a month ago, though, it seemed as if the recall race might prove to be competitive. After all, some polls in July and early August found opposition to the recall only narrowly leading support for it. However, as we got closer to election day, the polls showed the opposition with a sizable lead, and while it remains to be seen just how accurate the polls were, they appear to have been broadly right in the sense that the recall race wasn’t close. And that speaks to some of the fundamental conditions of this election: California is a solidly blue state (Biden won it by 29 points last year), and Newsom’s approval rating hovered just above 50 percent in most polls, despite some criticism of his tenure as governor and anger on the right toward his COVID-19 policies. In other words, after months of signature-gathering and campaigning, all the recall did was prove that California is still a very blue state. By comparison, the 2003 recall succeeded because California wasn’t nearly as blue as it is now (Kerry only won the state by 10 points in 2004) and Davis was terribly unpopular, with an approval rating in the mid-20s.

The second question on the ballot (the replacement question) is now purely academic since Newsom wasn’t recalled, but for those interested, Elder is currently at 43 percent, followed by Paffrath at 11 percent and Faulconer at 10 percent. But those numbers don’t factor in how many people skipped the second question entirely: 48 percent of those who voted on the first question, as of this writing. That reflects a concerted strategy by Newsom to urge Democrats to vote “no” on recall and leave the second question blank, which implicitly made the race a head-to-head matchup between Newsom and Elder. The strategy obviously worked, as Elder made no effort to distance himself from Trump and unpopular conservative COVID-19 policies, and Newsom was able to successfully present himself as a foil to the “Republican recall.”

Thanks for hanging with us, and if this post isn’t enough, feel free to scroll back through the liveblog and relive it in all its chronological glory. Or if that sounds too daunting (who can blame you), here’s a round up of the live blog crew’s headlines:

Meena: California, We’re Unsurprisingly ‘Right Back Where We Started From’

Micah: Democrats Happy With Democrat And Willing To Turn Out To Defend Democrat (And Maybe His Approach To COVID-19 Too)

Nathaniel: Governors Are Now 2-2 In Recall Elections In U.S. History

Ryan: Landslide. Blowout. Historic. Or At Least The Conventional Wisdom That Recall Elections See Low Turnout Might Be Wrong.

Tony: Do We Still Have To Podcast About This?

Jacob: San Francisco Area Man Passes Performance Review

Maya: It’s Nice To Be A Democrat In California

Sarah: What Will Gavin Newsom Run For Next?

Galen: The Boston Mayoral Primary Was The Night’s Most Interesting Contest

Geoffrey: Is That All There Is?