What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

There weren’t a ton of surprises at the regional level: Based on the results tallied tonight, coastal Californians — who overwhelmingly support Newsom — came out and broke strongly against the recall. As you move further inland, the preliminary results look less favorable for Newsom. But with less than 20 percent of the state electorate living outside the Bay Area and Southern California, any traction the recall got in the more conservative Central Valley or in the state’s northern reaches would have a limited impact. Still, there are a couple counties I’d be curious to see full results from. In his three statewide races, Newsom has never won Fresno County, but with 59 percent of the estimated vote in, the recall there is failing by 7 percentage points.

As we’re doing our final takeaways from the night: I know we’ve been rightly cautioning people against reading any national political lessons into the California results. But I do wonder whether there’s something in the relatively high turnout — for an off-cycle race. Namely, that Democrats are willing to go to the polls (or the mailbox) to defend masking, vaccines and other measures to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic.

That’s determinative in a super blue state like California, but if it holds true it could also really matter in more competitive states and districts.

Don’t worry, everyone, I’m hyping your analysis on Twitter: