FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

With 58 percent of the estimated vote reporting statewide, the recall is currently failing 67 percent to 33 percent. Some (mostly red) counties have yet to report any votes, and of course the election day vote will skew more conservative, but that is a big, big deficit for recall supporters to overcome.

Sarah Frostenson

Decision Desk HQ has called the race for Newsom:

But ABC News Decision Desk has not yet made a projection.

Ryan Matsumoto

To answer your question, Micah, Newsom’s campaign definitely emphasized the COVID-19 issue in a lot of their messaging, running ads calling Elder an “anti-vaccine Trump Republican.” I think it’s definitely a strong issue for him when feelings about pandemic policy are sharply polarized by party and Democrats have such a strong edge over Republicans in California. On the other hand, other issues like homelessness and housing affordability may not have such clear partisan battle lines.


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