FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

Decision Desk HQ has called the race for Newsom:

But ABC News Decision Desk has not yet made a projection.

Ryan Matsumoto

To answer your question, Micah, Newsom’s campaign definitely emphasized the COVID-19 issue in a lot of their messaging, running ads calling Elder an “anti-vaccine Trump Republican.” I think it’s definitely a strong issue for him when feelings about pandemic policy are sharply polarized by party and Democrats have such a strong edge over Republicans in California. On the other hand, other issues like homelessness and housing affordability may not have such clear partisan battle lines.

Sarah Frostenson

Oof, that’s a tough one, Micah. It certainly makes for a pithy slogan for Democrats looking to take on Republicans in 2022 who have either been resistant to enacting policies to help curb the spread of COVID-19 or have flat-out refused to do so, but I worry that’s too neat of a narrative by half. I largely side with what Jacob said. To be sure, COVID-19 played a role in this recall, but I don’t think it’s something we can extract too much from and apply elsewhere.


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