What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

Related to Nathaniel’s comment, I noticed that in deep blue Los Angeles County, about 1.85 million votes have been cast on the recall question, but only about 850,000 have been cast on the replacement question. That speaks to the pre-election polls that suggested a huge number of Democratic voters planned to not vote for any of the replacement candidates. This was in part because Newsom’s campaign explicitly encouraged voters to do that and also because California Democrats discouraged any notable Democrats from running — so even if a Democrat had wanted to vote for a replacement choice, they would likely be unfamiliar with any candidates on the replacement ballot.

Elder is currently leading the replacement question with 40 percent of the vote. Paffrath is in second place, all the way back at 12 percent, followed by Faulconer, who is doing better than expected at 10 percent. (I wonder if Faulconer, as a more moderate Republican, might be overperforming on mail ballots, too.)

While the organizers of the recall began their work before COVID-19 hit, the pandemic arguably played a big role in why we’re here today. For one thing, California courts extended the signature gathering deadline because organizers argued the pandemic had stifled their efforts. But Newsom’s COVID-19 restrictions and public relations snafus — like attending a posh dinner party unmasked in an enclosed space in violation of state protocols — may have galvanized Republicans and even some Democrats — to support his recall.

Nevertheless, despite some frustration with Newsom’s handling of COVID-19, the preliminary exit polls suggested that only about 3-in-10 California voters felt his pandemic policies were too strict, and Newsom is winning more than 4-in-5 of the roughly 7-in-10 voters who said his policies were about right or not strict enough. Additionally, about 3-in-10 voters named the pandemic as the most important issue (more than any other issue named), and Newsom won 4-in-5 of those voters, too.