What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

The latest batch of preliminary exit polling says that 55 percent of voters approved of the way Newsom is handling his job, and 42 percent disapprove. That’s a good position to be in when facing a recall that’s in many ways a giant approval poll. But it also underscores just how strong Newsom was heading into the race compared with his less fortunate predecessor, Gray Davis, who was recalled in 2003. Exit polling that year found Davis’s approval rating at an abysmal 26 percent approve/73 percent disapprove. And yet 45 percent of voters still wanted to keep Davis!

So Newsom is starting from a much stronger position and it’s entirely possible some voters who don’t approve of him will still vote No on recall, as they did in 2003.

These preliminary exit polls also indicate there’s a pretty big divide between the inland and coastal vote. Newsom is doing best in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The former is essentially his home turf — he came up in San Francisco, serving two terms as mayor — and has consistently voted overwhelmingly for Newsom in his statewide races. But further inland, according to these preliminary results, Californians voted in favor of removal by a 10-point margin.

We have our first county that is voting in favor of recall: conservative Trinity County, where mail ballots have split 54 percent to 46 percent for “yes.” Merced County (52 percent no, 48 percent yes in mail ballots) will likely join it once election day votes are counted.