What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

These preliminary exit polls also indicate there’s a pretty big divide between the inland and coastal vote. Newsom is doing best in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The former is essentially his home turf — he came up in San Francisco, serving two terms as mayor — and has consistently voted overwhelmingly for Newsom in his statewide races. But further inland, according to these preliminary results, Californians voted in favor of removal by a 10-point margin.

We have our first county that is voting in favor of recall: conservative Trinity County, where mail ballots have split 54 percent to 46 percent for “yes.” Merced County (52 percent no, 48 percent yes in mail ballots) will likely join it once election day votes are counted.

Based on what I’m seeing, the San Diego County mail ballot results being reported now are a very solid sign for Newsom. He’s winning them by 21 points compared to about a 2-point benchmark I had for him based on the pro-Democratic skew of mail votes, as well as presidential partisan leans by county.