What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

Based on what I’m seeing, the San Diego County mail ballot results being reported now are a very solid sign for Newsom. He’s winning them by 21 points compared to about a 2-point benchmark I had for him based on the pro-Democratic skew of mail votes, as well as presidential partisan leans by county.

Micah, I think it’s likely you will see the results start out more Democratic and then trend more Republican. However, I’m not sure if there’ll be a notable shift back toward Democrats in the coming days as the final ballots are counted. That happened in 2018, but it didn’t really happen in 2020.

So Geoff, in terms of how different types of votes are counted, we’re expecting blue —> red shift —> blue shift?