What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

We have the first results! The recall is currently failing 61 percent to 39 percent in San Diego County, which is slightly more conservative than the state as a whole. Remember, though, that the first votes reported are likely to skew Democratic because they are mostly mail-in ballots.

I would say that it might make sense to be generous because of the odd question format, but not because of the timing. Special elections are always weirdly timed but in aggregate can still give us a sense of the overall climate.

Considering this election is unlikely to be another 12.1-million vote affair, I don’t see Newsom replicating his 2018 margin. I imagine Democrats would be happy with a margin in the mid-teens. But if Republicans can use this election to sniff out Newsom’s weaknesses — say, waning support for the governor in the Central Valley or perhaps turning out persuadable voters in Orange County or other once-Republican strongholds — well, that could be a win.