What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

I would say that it might make sense to be generous because of the odd question format, but not because of the timing. Special elections are always weirdly timed but in aggregate can still give us a sense of the overall climate.

Considering this election is unlikely to be another 12.1-million vote affair, I don’t see Newsom replicating his 2018 margin. I imagine Democrats would be happy with a margin in the mid-teens. But if Republicans can use this election to sniff out Newsom’s weaknesses — say, waning support for the governor in the Central Valley or perhaps turning out persuadable voters in Orange County or other once-Republican strongholds — well, that could be a win.

Yeah, as Ryan said, shouldn’t we be grading Newsom on more of a curve given that this is an oddly timed, oddly formatted election? Lower turnout and so forth. I guess Nathaniel’s 15 points is pretty generous curve.