What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

Yeah, Galen, I think that’s a pretty good baseline. You could also use California’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean, which is D+25. I’d say a weak performance for Newsom would be anything less than a 15-point win.

A number of indicators suggest that Newsom is likelier than not to keep his job tonight, but what kind of margin would be a good performance for Republicans or Democrats? Should we use Newsom’s previous 20-plus point margin in 2018 as a baseline?

The polls have just closed in California. While we’re waiting for more detailed analysis of the results, one thing we can say based off of preliminary exit polls is that “No” is leading in the first question of the recall, according to the ABC News Decision Desk. To be clear, though, there is not yet enough information to project whether Newsom has been recalled.