FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

Galen, Republicans will have more faith in the election results if they win. But I don’t think that’ll tell us whether they’ll be more confident going forward in cases when they lose. Based on the 2020 result, Republicans were far more confident in results when Trump won their state than when he didn’t. I am suspicious we’ll see more of the same going forward because of the consistent tendency to claim there’s fraud.

Jacob Rubashkin

I agree with Kaleigh here. Even if Republicans win the House and Senate, they will have lost up to 217 individual House seats and up to a dozen Senate seats, many of which are less Democratic than the state of California.

And don’t forget the legislative agenda element. If Republicans retake control of Congress and some of the various states, there will be immense pressure from their base to focus on election integrity and these false claims of fraud. That alone will keep the issue alive for Republican voters.

Kaleigh Rogers

I’m not sure, Galen. Trump won in many states in 2020, and that didn’t assuage any claims about fraud.


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