What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

Hispanic voters are typically thought of as a political powerhouse in the state of California — and for good reason. They are the largest ethnic group in the state, at about 39 percent of the population, and are a growing share of the state’s electorate.

Accordingly, Hispanic voters could make or break Newsom’s political future. But that’s not because they’ll vote as a unified bloc. Hispanic voters in the state may lean Democratic overall, but 2020 showed that there’s nothing guaranteed about that. Indeed, there’s no such thing as the “Hispanic vote.” And recent polls suggest that Hispanic voters in California are split on whether Newsom should keep his job. In an early August CBS News/YouGov poll, Hispanic voters, who comprise roughly 30 percent of California’s electorate, were split 50-50 on whether to recall Newsom. And in a July UC Berkeley/IGS survey, 40 percent of Latino likely voters said they’d vote to recall Newsom, compared with 56 percent who would not.

Hispanic voters who tell pollsters they are likely to vote in the recall election — just like likely voters in general in California — lean more toward recalling Newsom than the broader pool of Hispanic registered voters. For example, that Berkeley/IGS survey found that among all Latino registered voters, only 28 percent said they’d vote to recall, 52 percent said they would not and 20 percent were undecided.

Democrats have rushed to reach out to the state’s Hispanic voters in an attempt to encourage more to turn out. Part of the last-minute scramble is because Hispanic voters in the state were disproportionately impacted by COVID-19, and Republicans have been trying to paint Newsom as out of touch with working-class voters who were affected by the state’s lockdown orders.

Of course, it’s possible Newsom’s potential troubles with Hispanic voters might be overstated. In that CBS News/YouGov survey, 55 percent of Hispanic voters said they approve of how Newsom is handling his job as governor. But in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s modest gains among Hispanic voters in 2020, it’ll be especially interesting to see if even a small chunk of the state’s Hispanic population embraces the GOP — or if the support Newsom receives from California’s Hispanic voters will be enough to put him over the top.

California’s electorate leans heavily Democratic. But one reason it’s still possible for Newsom to lose is that not all Californians will vote in this recall election. It’s a political cliche but usually true (and absolutely true in this case): The result will likely come down to turnout — who’s motivated to vote.

Earlier this year, the GOP looked like it decidedly had the motivation edge. But recently, overall engagement in the recall — and Democratic enthusiasm in particular — has increased. That’s a big reason Newsom’s prospects look brighter than they did in August,

• Two PPIC surveys from the spring showed only about 20 percent of California voters were following recall news “very closely”;
• A Berkeley/IGS poll from July showed that nearly 90 percent of Republicans were highly interested in the recall election, compared to only 58 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of voters with no party preference;
• The latest PPIC poll showed a change who held in the enthusiasm edge, with 75 percent of Democrats and 67 percent of Republicans saying the recall election results were “very important” to them;
• The same poll showed 81 percent of likely voters following the race at least “fairly closely,” compared to only 62 percent in the May poll;
• That poll also showed 47 percent of likely voters reported they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this election, compared to 30 percent who said they were less enthusiastic.

So what once seemed likely to be a very-very-low-turnout election now looks a bit livelier. Of course, it’s still an off-year election,meaning that it’s not being held in the same year as races for the U.S. Senate and House and/or presidency. Studies have shown that timing matters in state and local races, too. In Los Angeles, for example, voter turnout increased around twofold in city council and school board elections last year after voters overwhelmingly chose to change those elections to even years. But so far, voters are turning out in this odd-year race at a high rate relative to past special elections.

All that being said, a lack of participation in local elections is not specific to California: It’s part of a broader trend of an increasingly nationalized media and less attention on local news. (More Californians have digital subscriptions to The New York Times than the San Francisco Chronicle or the Los Angeles Times.) It’s no wonder that Newsom’s anti-recall strategy has involved nationalizing the race in an effort to energize his liberal base.

So we’ll be keeping a close eye on how many people vote (in addition to how they vote, of course).

As a refresher, there are two questions on the ballot in this election. The first is a yes-or-no question: “Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?” The second asks voters to pick one candidate to succeed Newsom if he is recalled. Voters can vote on the second question even if they vote “no” on the first one. And if the first question fails, the second question simply will not count.

This two-part recall system, though, is controversial. Since there is no runoff on the second question, it’s possible that a new governor can be elected with fewer votes than the incumbent governor. (Say Newsom is removed with 55 percent of voters in favor of recall and 45 percent against, and Elder is elected his replacement with 25 percent of the vote. In that scenario, 45 percent of Californians wanted Newsom to be governor and only 25 percent wanted Elder.)

It doesn’t have to work this way, though. In five states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Dakota and Wisconsin), the target of the recall can run in a normal head-to-head election against any candidates who file to oppose her. Seven other states (Georgia, Louisiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey and Rhode Island) ask voters only the yes-or-no recall question, then hold a special election on a later date to fill the vacancy if the recall is successful. And five other states (Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Oregon and Washington) ask only the yes-or-no recall question, then appoint a successor if the recall succeeds.

For more on just how odd California’s recall process is, check out this piece by my colleagues Maya and Jasmine.