What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

Efforts to recall Newsom predate the pandemic, but his opponents have latched on to his handling of COVID-19 as a reason to recall him. And although every state government has had to make hard choices on how to handle the pandemic — including dealing with some level of public criticism over their pandemic policy — this is the one where a governor’s office is on the line. So it makes sense to ask: How different is Newsom’s policy, and California’s outcomes, from those of other states?

While California hasn’t been the state with the most stringent COVID-19 protection regulations, it’s definitely in the top 10, according to an analysis by researchers at the University of Oxford in the U.K. That team developed a stringency index, which measures and compares how strict different states have been in setting rules around lockdowns, social restrictions and other containment strategies to combat COVID-19. Basically, it assesses which states have been the most careful.

Measured on a 0-100 scale, the average national stringency index peaked above 70 in April of 2020 and quickly fell after that. Even during the virus’s surge last winter, it barely passed 50. California, however, retained a stringency index score above 60 for nearly all of 2020 and into spring 2021. In other words, it’s very easy for Californians to look around and see neighbors whose lives were less disrupted for shorter periods of time.

The upside for Californians is that the stringency of the state’s COVID-19 rules have led to lower death rates compared to less-stringent states. An analysis by the L.A. Times found that if California had had the same death rate as Florida (ranked 23rd on the Oxford stringency index), another 6,000 Californians would have died. A death rate like Arizona’s (ranked 34th) would have meant another 38,000 dead Californians.

To be sure, California didn’t escape the impacts of COVID-19. In particular, as the L.A. Times analysis pointed out, the state was hit hard by last winter’s surge — something that could, for some Californians, contribute to a sense that the suffering of stringency wasn’t worth it. But recent polls suggest that most people in the state are fine with the trade-off. An Ipsos poll from late August found that 61 percent of registered voters approved of Newsom’s handling of the pandemic.

The outcome of the recall election will have serious implications for California’s climate agenda. As the world’s fifth-largest economy, the state has consistently pressured the federal government to act to address climate change. Under both Republican and Democratic governors, California has implemented aggressive climate policies, including clean energy and emissions standards, before any other state. Ahead of the recall election, Californians also face historic wildfires, the world’s highest temperatures on record, and one of the worst droughts in the state’s history.

Newsom introduced the first ban of gas-fueled vehicles by 2035 via executive order and earmarked an unprecedented $12 billion for climate initiatives, including plans to build up electric vehicle infrastructure and wildfire resilience. Support for these measures is largely divided along party lines, according to a July PPIC poll on residents’ attitudes on the environment. His plan to ban the expansion of fracking received 81 percent support from Democrats and only 29 percent support from Republicans. Likewise, 69 percent of Democrats favor his mandate to ban sales of new gasoline-powered vehicles, versus just 14 percent of Republicans.

Elder, the candidate most likely to replace Newsom if the recall succeeds, acknowledged climate change in his campaign but not the urgency needed to address it. While other Republican challengers have recognized wildfires as a major problem, California’s climate agenda under the Newsom administration — including expedited carbon neutrality goals and fracking phase-outs — would be endangered if he were recalled.

And that might be one reason the recall could fail: The Republican candidates running to replace Newsom hold positions on climate change and the environment that are at odds with most Californians.

According to the latest PPIC poll, wildfires, global warming and the drought ranked as sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively, in the list of most important issues facing people in California today. In a CBS News/YouGov poll from last month, nearly 80 percent of Californians said that wildfires were a very important issue in the state. Fifty-seven percent approved of Newsom’s handling of the wildfires, matching his overall approval rating. According to the same poll, 73 percent of Californians, including 51 percent of Republicans, support California’s recent efforts to slow the impacts of climate change in the state.

Overall, that PPIC poll found 59 percent of adults approved of Newsom’s handling of environmental issues. That’s down 10 percentage points from the year before (and again, support is divided along party lines). But there is some agreement over how to best tackle these issues. Majorities in both parties support the development of alternative energy sources (93 percent of Democrats, 56 percent of Republicans) over the expansion of fossil fuel exploration and production.

While Newsom has faced criticism for his shortcomings on climate-related issues, skepticism over his ability to deliver on ambitious climate plans might not outweigh fear of the alternatives in this recall election.

Yes, I’d say so, Amelia. This one needed a lot of help to get on the ballot.