What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

The outcome of the recall election will have serious implications for California’s climate agenda. As the world’s fifth-largest economy, the state has consistently pressured the federal government to act to address climate change. Under both Republican and Democratic governors, California has implemented aggressive climate policies, including clean energy and emissions standards, before any other state. Ahead of the recall election, Californians also face historic wildfires, the world’s highest temperatures on record, and one of the worst droughts in the state’s history.

Newsom introduced the first ban of gas-fueled vehicles by 2035 via executive order and earmarked an unprecedented $12 billion for climate initiatives, including plans to build up electric vehicle infrastructure and wildfire resilience. Support for these measures is largely divided along party lines, according to a July PPIC poll on residents’ attitudes on the environment. His plan to ban the expansion of fracking received 81 percent support from Democrats and only 29 percent support from Republicans. Likewise, 69 percent of Democrats favor his mandate to ban sales of new gasoline-powered vehicles, versus just 14 percent of Republicans.

Elder, the candidate most likely to replace Newsom if the recall succeeds, acknowledged climate change in his campaign but not the urgency needed to address it. While other Republican challengers have recognized wildfires as a major problem, California’s climate agenda under the Newsom administration — including expedited carbon neutrality goals and fracking phase-outs — would be endangered if he were recalled.

And that might be one reason the recall could fail: The Republican candidates running to replace Newsom hold positions on climate change and the environment that are at odds with most Californians.

According to the latest PPIC poll, wildfires, global warming and the drought ranked as sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively, in the list of most important issues facing people in California today. In a CBS News/YouGov poll from last month, nearly 80 percent of Californians said that wildfires were a very important issue in the state. Fifty-seven percent approved of Newsom’s handling of the wildfires, matching his overall approval rating. According to the same poll, 73 percent of Californians, including 51 percent of Republicans, support California’s recent efforts to slow the impacts of climate change in the state.

Overall, that PPIC poll found 59 percent of adults approved of Newsom’s handling of environmental issues. That’s down 10 percentage points from the year before (and again, support is divided along party lines). But there is some agreement over how to best tackle these issues. Majorities in both parties support the development of alternative energy sources (93 percent of Democrats, 56 percent of Republicans) over the expansion of fossil fuel exploration and production.

While Newsom has faced criticism for his shortcomings on climate-related issues, skepticism over his ability to deliver on ambitious climate plans might not outweigh fear of the alternatives in this recall election.

Yes, I’d say so, Amelia. This one needed a lot of help to get on the ballot.

So does that mean that fears of future recall-paloozas in California might be a bit overblown, Nathaniel, if this effort was so far short of its mark when the original signature deadline rolled around?