What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

As Nathaniel mentioned, Newsom’s handling of the pandemic has certainly played a role in Californians wanting to oust him from office, but it’s hardly the only reason for the recall effort. In fact, when the race was heating up in July, we noted that according to a poll from the University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Governmental Studies co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, Newsom’s biggest liability wasn’t his handling of the pandemic but rather his handling of many of the state’s long-standing problems, like homelessness, income inequality and wildfires. How have these issues factored into the race? And why are they such a political problem for politicians in the state?

For many, living in California is becoming an increasingly unattainable dream. The median price for a single-family home in the state hit $818,260 earlier this year, and according to a 2020 report on homelessness, California accounted for about half of all of the unsheltered people in the United States last year. Not coincidentally, California’s population actually declined in 2020 — a trend fueled at least in part by residents moving to other states for more affordable housing. The Californians who remain in the state see housing costs and homelessness as key issues to resolve, and Newsom’s rivals have said his approach isn’t working.

Newsom, of course, didn’t create California’s housing crisis — and it’s hard to see how he can fix it. It’s a problem that stems from slow building and decades-old zoning decisions that have made it impossible to create enough housing to meet demand. Much of the problem is local, hindering any comprehensive statewide solution, and California lawmakers are deeply divided over what they think is the right way forward. Nonetheless, Newsom made addressing housing issues a central goal of his administration — and some frustrated voters may be blaming him all the same.

If Newsom is recalled, a lot of people are going to point to discontent over his COVID-19 policies as the reason why. But the real story is much more complicated. The recall, in fact, wasn’t originally inspired by COVID-19 at all; it was initiated on Feb. 21, 2020, before the pandemic began to surge in the U.S. Instead, it appears just general Republican discontent with a Democratic governor was the motivation; activists have been trying to recall Newsom on and off almost since the moment he took office.

But COVID-19 was the reason this recall effort took off where previous ones had fizzled out. In November 2020, a judge gave recall organizers four additional months in which to collect signatures, due to the difficulties posed by the pandemic. Without that extension, this recall effort would have fallen far short of the number of signatures necessary to trigger an election. But over the course of those four extra months, the French Laundry story broke, and Newsom started earning criticism (even from allies) over his handling of school reopenings, lockdowns and the vaccine rollout. Smelling blood in the water, prominent Republicans began to endorse the recall effort, bringing it more media and public attention, and the recall campaign’s fundraising escalated too. By the new deadline, the recall campaign had collected more than enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.

Now that the election is upon us, though, 70 percent of Californians are at least partially vaccinated, it’s been 10 months since the French Laundry incident, and it’s once again unclear whether COVID-19 is driving most of the discontent against Newsom. SurveyUSA asked recall supporters in late August about why they wanted Newsom to be recalled, and while 52 percent gave a pandemic-related reason (such as “his handling of COVID restrictions” and “attending a party during lockdown”), 44 percent gave an unrelated reason (such as “spending decisions” and “mishandling of unemployment dollars”). So, if the recall succeeds, it’s safe to say COVID-19 will have played a big part, but so will have normal partisan opposition.