FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Indeed, recall organizers had fewer than 750,000 signatures as of Nov. 17, the original signature deadline. That’s far short of the approximately 1.5 million that were needed.

Geoffrey Skelley

It’s possible this recall only managed to qualify for the ballot because state courts gave the organizers an extra four months to gather signatures due to COVID-19, unlike the previous five efforts against Newsom that failed. But Republican frustration with Newsom’s COVID-19 response may have also generated more energy to support the recall effort. At the very least, we can say it was primarily a GOP-motivated campaign because the more Republican a county was in the 2020 election, the higher its share of recall signatures tended to be.

Kaleigh Rogers

And lest we forget, this campaign was partly spearheaded by the Patriot Commission, which cited “crime rate, unaffordable housing, rampant homelessness, failing schools, irresponsible spending” in its petition for a recall, not Newsom’s handling of the pandemic.


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