What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

It’s possible this recall only managed to qualify for the ballot because state courts gave the organizers an extra four months to gather signatures due to COVID-19, unlike the previous five efforts against Newsom that failed. But Republican frustration with Newsom’s COVID-19 response may have also generated more energy to support the recall effort. At the very least, we can say it was primarily a GOP-motivated campaign because the more Republican a county was in the 2020 election, the higher its share of recall signatures tended to be.

And lest we forget, this campaign was partly spearheaded by the Patriot Commission, which cited “crime rate, unaffordable housing, rampant homelessness, failing schools, irresponsible spending” in its petition for a recall, not Newsom’s handling of the pandemic.

One important aspect of COVID-19 policy debates is that they tend to be highly polarized by party, so Newsom may have been able to benefit just by taking positions aligned with the state’s Democratic-leaning electorate. On the other hand, issues like homelessness and housing affordability may not have such clear battle lines, giving Republicans an opening to challenge Newsom just on the basis that things aren’t going so well.