What Went Down At The California Recall Election: Live Results

Chiming in with this chart from Geoff and Nathaniel’s piece this morning:

I don’t really think the recall has hurt Newsom’s standing. Though I do think recalls (and similar efforts) could become more and more common. Lots of people (especially in the Republican Party) see the opposing party as enemies and deny that they should even have a seat at the table, let alone lead the meeting. Losing an election, then, becomes existential, rather than a temporary political setback.

Newsom probably wants to be president someday. I’m not sure when his moment will come — especially given that the next Democrat in line is his close political ally, Kamala Harris — but he is pretty young (53) so he could run in 2028, 2032 or even 2036 after Biden and Harris have left the stage.

Today’s Republican Party hasn’t been able to compete statewide in California. Statewide GOP gubernatorial candidates have lost in good cycles (2010, 2014) and bad cycles (2018) alike. Between the two-part question format, the Biden slump and a bit of an enthusiasm advantage, the recall presented the best opportunity Republicans have had in over a decade. It’s a chance they have to take regardless of potential blowback.

I’d also note that this recall looks likely to take the shine off of Kevin Faulconer, the moderate former GOP mayor of San Diego who was expected to run for governor in 2022 and had national Republicans excited. Now, he’s polling behind a talk radio host and a YouTuber. That’s not a great starting point for a 2022 campaign.