Sarah, I think Democrats were hoping that Grassley, who is 88 years old, would start to show his age on the campaign trail — or just drop out entirely, leaving a surprise open seat that they would be well-positioned to win with an experienced candidate. But in a Republican-leaning year like 2022 in a Republican-trending state like Iowa, Democrats were always going to be the underdogs. They couldn’t even win statewide in Iowa in 2018, a blue wave year!
There’s not much of one, Sarah. Maybe if Trump were president.
This goes back to something Galen said earlier on the live blog, but whether it was Finkenauer or Franken who won tonight, what exactly is the theory of the case for a Democrat winning statewide in Iowa?
There’s an ongoing and healthy discussion about how useful internal campaign polling is, but Franken’s win in the Iowa Democratic Senate primary tonight is right in line with what his own campaign’s polling was telling him for the past several months (polling I obtained and reported on in mid-May). As I wrote back then, Franken was vastly outspending Finkenauer on paid media. In the final tally, he spent twice as much as she did on TV and radio, according to data from Kantar Media/CMAG.
With 27 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 11th District, Selen is ahead, with 41 percent of the vote. DeGroot has 33 percent and Anderson has 20 percent, and the other two candidates continue to trail far behind. Again, whoever wins this primary will be in for a tough race against incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill. Sherrill, who was first elected in 2018, is on much firmer ground after 2021’s redistricting cycle. The district went from very swingy, with a partisan lean of D+1, to a much more solid Democratic district, with a partisan lean of D+11.
In New Mexico’s 1st District, Michelle Garcia Holmes is still well ahead in the Republican primary. There’s 37 percent of the expected vote reporting and she’s got 62 percent of the vote.
ABC News reports that incumbent Dusty Johnson is projected to win South Dakota’s at-large Republican primary.
How Big Lie opponents are doing tonight
Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have accepted the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in primaries in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, as of 10:08 p.m. Eastern
| CANDIDATE | OFFICE | Big Lie Position | % REPORTING | VOTE SHARE | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Grassley* | IA Sen. | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 48% | 74.5% | ✓ Won |
| Kim Reynolds* | IA Gov. | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 34 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | IA-01 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 23 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Ashley Hinson* | IA-02 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 26 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Zach Nunn | IA-03 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 90 | 68.7 | ✓ Won |
| Randy Feenstra* | IA-04 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 13 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Jeff Van Drew* | NJ-02 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 43 | 85.0 | ✓ Won |
| Christopher H. Smith* | NJ-04 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 63 | 56.9 | ✓ Won |
| Nick De Gregorio | NJ-05 | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 2 | 40.0 | Trailing |
| John R. Thune* | SD Sen. | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 31 | 73.3 | ✓ Won |
| Dusty Johnson* | SD-AL | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 31 | 61.3 | ✓ Won |
| Jon Elist | CA Sen. | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Robert George Lucero Jr. | CA Sen. | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Brian Dahle | CA Gov. | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Rob Bernosky | CA SoS | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Tom McClintock* | CA-05 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| David G. Valadao* | CA-22 | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Young Kim* | CA-40 | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Amy Phan West | CA-47 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mitch Heuer | MT-01 | 🤔 Accepted with reservations | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Matt Jette | MT-01 | ✅ Accepted 2020 results | 0 | 0.0 | — |
With 30 percent reporting, Johnson is ahead in South Dakota’s Republican primary for its at-large congressional seat, 61 percent to 39 percent.
Franken’s victory means, of course, that Abby Finkenauer will not be the Democratic Senate candidate in Iowa. That’s the first high-profile loss for a woman running in a Democratic primary tonight. Here’s the latest on how Democratic women are doing:
How Democratic women are doing tonight
Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Democratic primaries in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, as of 10:06 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Office | % Reporting | Vote Share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abby Finkenauer | IA Sen. | 56% | 37.6% | ✗ Lost |
| Deidre DeJear | IA Gov. | 43 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Christina Bohannan | IA-01 | 46 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Liz Mathis | IA-02 | 21 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Cindy Axne* | IA-03 | 12 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Carolyn Rush | NJ-02 | 26 | 41.7 | Trailing |
| Ane Roseborough-Eberhard | NJ-08 | 38 | 5.7 | ✗ Lost |
| Imani Oakley | NJ-10 | 27 | 10.3 | ✗ Lost |
| Mikie Sherrill* | NJ-11 | 32 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Bonnie Watson Coleman* | NJ-12 | 15 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham* | NM Gov. | 44 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Melanie Ann Stansbury* | NM-01 | 54 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez* | NM-03 | 32 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Beth Hampson | CA-02 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Doris Matsui* | CA-07 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cheryl Sudduth | CA-08 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Karena Apple Feng | CA-09 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nancy Pelosi* | CA-11 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bianca Von Krieg | CA-11 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Barbara Lee* | CA-12 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Emily Beach | CA-15 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Anna G. Eshoo* | CA-16 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Zoe Lofgren* | CA-18 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Marisa Wood | CA-20 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Blanca A. Gómez | CA-23 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Julia Brownley* | CA-26 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ruth Luevanos | CA-27 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Christy Smith | CA-27 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Dorothy Caronna | CA-28 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Judy Chu* | CA-28 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Angélica María Dueñas | CA-29 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| G “Maebe A. Girl” Pudlo | CA-30 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Grace F. Napolitano* | CA-31 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Aarika Samone Rhodes | CA-32 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Norma J. Torres* | CA-35 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sydney Kamlager | CA-37 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sandra Mendoza | CA-37 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jan C. Perry | CA-37 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Linda T. Sánchez* | CA-38 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Shrina Kurani | CA-41 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cristina Garcia | CA-42 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| J. Nicole Lopez | CA-42 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Maxine Waters* | CA-43 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nanette Diaz Barragan* | CA-44 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Katie Porter* | CA-47 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nadia Bahia Smalley | CA-49 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Kylie Louie Vie Benitez Taitano | CA-50 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sara Jacobs* | CA-51 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cora Neumann | MT-01 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Monica Tranel | MT-01 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Penny Ronning | MT-02 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
ABC News is reporting that Gabe Vasquez is projected to win the Democratic nomination in New Mexico’s 2nd District. He’ll face Rep. Yvette Herrell in what is sure to be a tight race this fall.
ABC News reports that Michael Franken is projected to win the Democratic primary in the Iowa Senate race.
And maybe not even just the liberals trying to get it passed, Nathaniel. Ross Benes, who wrote a book in 2020 on how Nebraska increasingly became a Republican state, found that ballot measures among voters like Medicaid expansion were popular among Republican voters and even passed in the state.
Over the past few years, several red states have expanded Medicaid via ballot measure, and with a Medicaid expansion ballot measure having qualified for the 2022 ballot, South Dakota looked poised to join them this fall. However, the state’s Republican-controlled legislature had other ideas. They placed a ballot measure, Constitutional Amendment C, on today’s ballot that would raise the threshold for passing future ballot measures that involve significant government spending to 60 percent (up from a simple majority). However, with 42 percent of precincts fully or partially reporting, Constitutional Amendment C is currently failing 69 percent to 31 percent. If that holds, it will make it a lot easier for liberals to get Medicaid expansion passed in the state this November.
Let’s check in with some of the Big Lie candidates on the ballot whose races have been called so far. As expected, there have been a lot of losses. But a few candidates have pulled through, like Darius Mayfield, who was running unopposed in New Jersey’s 12th District. He has called himself “a Donald Trump Republican,” and tweeted that the election was stolen. However, in a district with a partisan lean of D+30, he doesn’t stand much of a chance against incumbent Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (which is likely why he was the only Republican who bothered to run):
How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight
Senate, House, gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in primaries in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, as of 10:02 p.m. Eastern
| CANDIDATE | OFFICE | Big Lie Position | % REPORTING | VOTE SHARE | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Carlin | IA Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 42% | 25.6% | ✗ Lost |
| Gary Leffler | IA-03 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 81 | 10.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Claire Gustafson | NJ-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 32 | 68.0 | ✓ Won |
| Ian A. Smith | NJ-03 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 27 | 36.1 | Trailing |
| Mike Crispi | NJ-04 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 60 | 38.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Steve Gray | NJ-04 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 60 | 4.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Philip Rizzo | NJ-07 | ❓Raised doubts | 33 | 21.0 | ✗ Lost |
| Billy Prempeh | NJ-09 | ❓Raised doubts | 1 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Alexander R. Halter | NJ-11 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 20 | 1.4 | Trailing |
| Darius Mayfield | NJ-12 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 8 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Mark V. Ronchetti | NM Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 31 | 60.6 | ✓ Won |
| Rebecca L. Dow | NM Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 31 | 14.7 | ✗ Lost |
| Gregory Joseph Zanetti | NM Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 31 | 14.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Jay C. Block | NM Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 31 | 9.3 | ✗ Lost |
| Ethel R. Maharg | NM Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 31 | 1.2 | ✗ Lost |
| Michelle Garcia Holmes | NM-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 37 | 62.3 | Leading |
| Yvette Herrell* | NM-02 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 17 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Bruce Whalen | SD Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 30 | 19.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Mark Mowry | SD Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 30 | 7.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Steven Haugaard | SD Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 30 | 23.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Taffy Howard | SD-AL | ❓Raised doubts | 30 | 38.6 | Trailing |
| James P. Bradley | CA Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sarah Sun Liew | CA Sen. | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Chuck Smith | CA Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cordie Williams | CA Sen. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Daniel R. Mercuri | CA Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cristian Raul Morales | CA Gov. | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Robert C. Newman II | CA Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Leo S. Zacky | CA Gov. | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Rachel Hamm | CA SoS | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| James “JW” Paine | CA SoS | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Raul Rodriguez Jr. | CA SoS | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Eric Early | CA AG | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Doug LaMalfa* | CA-01 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Max Semenenko | CA-07 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jim Shoemaker | CA-09 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| John Dennis | CA-11 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Diego Javier Martinez | CA-13 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ritesh Tandon | CA-17 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Dalila Epperson | CA-19 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Kevin McCarthy* | CA-20 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Chris Mathys | CA-22 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jay Obernolte* | CA-23 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Fadde Mikhail | CA-26 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Paul Nathan Taylor | CA-26 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mike Garcia* | CA-27 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| David Rudnick | CA-27 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Patrick Lee Gipson | CA-30 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ronda Kennedy | CA-30 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Johnny J. Nalbandian | CA-30 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mike Cargile | CA-35 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Joe E. Collins III | CA-36 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Derrick R. Gates | CA-36 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Eric J. Ching | CA-38 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Tony Moreno | CA-39 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Aja Smith | CA-39 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bill Spinney | CA-39 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Greg Raths | CA-40 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nick Taurus | CA-40 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ken Calvert* | CA-41 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| John Briscoe | CA-42 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Omar Navarro | CA-43 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Long K. Pham | CA-45 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Darrell Issa* | CA-48 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Christopher Rodriguez | CA-49 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| David Chiddick | CA-50 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Tyler Geffeney | CA-52 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Al “Doc” Olszewski | MT-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mary Todd | MT-01 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ryan K. Zinke | MT-01 | ❓Raised doubts | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Matt Rosendale* | MT-02 | 🚫 Denied legitimacy | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Speaking of statewide California races, Galen, the Senate race will also be an interesting one to watch, in part because it’s two separate contests. The first is to finish Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla’s truncated term — he was appointed by Newsom to finish Vice President Kamala Harris’s term — and another for a full term starting in January 2023. Padilla isn’t facing any high-profile challengers in either of the two contests, and polls ahead of tonight suggest that he’s in good shape to advance in both Senate races. According to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, for example, Padilla enjoys a substantial lead over all of his opponents: Forty-two percent of respondents supported him in the full-term race, and 44 percent supported him in the partial-term one. His closest rivals for the full-term race are Republicans Mark Meuser, a constitutional attorney, who netted 11 percent support, and Chuck Smith, a veteran and former law enforcement officer, who earned 6 percent.
We’ve still got about an hour before polls close in California, the most anticipated state of today’s batch. There are almost two dozen competitive primary races in the state alone, but one race that isn’t competitive is the governor’s. As folks may remember, it momentarily seemed like Gov. Gavin Newsom was at risk of losing in a recall last year. He ended up beating back the effort handily, and since then, no bold-face name has stepped forward to challenge him for a second term. That is probably the smart move, given how much money Newsom has in the bank and the state’s partisan leanings. Were there to be an open governor’s race in California, however, that would be very interesting. The state seems to be in the middle of a reckoning with its progressive/liberal identity and I’d be curious to see what a free-for-all might look like.
ABC News reports that incumbent Rep. Chris Smith is projected to win the Republican nomination for New Jersey’s 4th Congressional District, beating right-wing challenger Mike Crispi. This outcome isn’t too surprising, since even though Smith sparked Trump’s ire by voting for Biden’s infrastructure bill, he’s very much a known quantity in the district — he’s served for more than 40 years — and Crispi didn’t manage to nab Trump’s endorsement. The vote for Crispi was sizable, though, suggesting that a less fringe-y candidate with Trump’s backing might have been able to cause some real trouble for Smith.
With almost half of the expected vote in, Franken is still ahead in the Democratic primary for the Iowa Senate seat, with 58 percent of the vote. He’s followed by Abby Finkenauer at 37 percent. Finkenauer served one term in the House, defeating a Republican incumbent in 2018. She almost didn’t make it onto the ballot after Republicans challenged whether she had enough signatures to qualify. Going into tonight, she was viewed as a slight favorite.
Vote counting is S-L-O-W in New Jersey’s 5th District, which covers Bergen County. In very, very early returns, retired banker Frank Pallotta has pulled slightly ahead on the Republican Side, but the vote count is too small to put much stock in that. Pallotta ran, and lost, against incumbent Gottheimer in 2020. Gottheimer sent flyers to district voters tying Pallotta to Trump. One of Pallotta’s opponents, Nick De Gregorio, accused Gottheimer of trying to interfere with the Republican primary and confuse voters about who is the “true conservative” in the race.
With 24 percent of the expected vote reporting, Gabe Vasquez is beating Darshan Patel 76 percent to 24 percent for the Democratic nomination in New Mexico’s 2nd District. Vasquez was named to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, indicating he has the support of the Democratic Party apparatus. This district is currently held by Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell, but New Mexico Democrats gerrymandered it so that it’s now very winnable for them, with a D+4 partisan lean.
Ronchetti was definitely one of the least Big Lie-y of the bunch in that race, Geoff. All the candidates were asked at a recent debate about whether or not they believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. Ronchetti dodged the question entirely. So, he didn’t was it was legitimate, but he also didn’t say it was illegitimate. And he didn’t say, as New Mexico state Rep. Rebecca Dow did, “without that election fraud then Donald Trump would be the president.”
ABC News reports that former meteorologist Mark Ronchetti is projected to win the GOP primary for governor in New Mexico. This was not a surprise as Ronchetti led in fundraising and in the polls. With 27 percent of the expected vote reporting, Ronchetti leads with about 64 percent, crushing all of his opponents. His win sets up what could be a highly competitive general election against Lujan Grisham, who is seeking her second term.
There are lots of Democratic women on the ballot tonight, but they’re mainly in California, so we’re still waiting to get those results. So far we’re seeing a lot of incumbents win — including New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Another woman of note whose race has been called is Democrat Deidre DeJear, who was running unopposed and will go up against Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds in November. DeJear, who was the first Black candidate to be nominated for statewide office in Iowa when she ran for secretary of state in 2018, is considered a rising star in the Iowa Democratic party, but she will have a very tough time beating Reynolds, who in addition to being the incumbent has a huge fundraising edge. Here’s how Democratic women are doing so far tonight:
How Democratic women are doing tonight
Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Democratic primaries in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, as of 9:49 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Office | % Reporting | Vote Share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abby Finkenauer | IA Sen. | 45% | 36.8% | Trailing |
| Deidre DeJear | IA Gov. | 16 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Christina Bohannan | IA-01 | 44 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Liz Mathis | IA-02 | 7 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Cindy Axne* | IA-03 | 8 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Carolyn Rush | NJ-02 | 23 | 41.5 | Trailing |
| Ane Roseborough-Eberhard | NJ-08 | 19 | 6.6 | ✗ Lost |
| Imani Oakley | NJ-10 | 19 | 10.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Mikie Sherrill* | NJ-11 | 23 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Bonnie Watson Coleman* | NJ-12 | 15 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham* | NM Gov. | 40 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Melanie Ann Stansbury* | NM-01 | 54 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Teresa Leger Fernandez* | NM-03 | 25 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Beth Hampson | CA-02 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Doris Matsui* | CA-07 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cheryl Sudduth | CA-08 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Karena Apple Feng | CA-09 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nancy Pelosi* | CA-11 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bianca Von Krieg | CA-11 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Barbara Lee* | CA-12 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Emily Beach | CA-15 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Anna G. Eshoo* | CA-16 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Zoe Lofgren* | CA-18 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Marisa Wood | CA-20 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Blanca A. Gómez | CA-23 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Julia Brownley* | CA-26 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ruth Luevanos | CA-27 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Christy Smith | CA-27 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Dorothy Caronna | CA-28 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Judy Chu* | CA-28 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Angélica María Dueñas | CA-29 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| G “Maebe A. Girl” Pudlo | CA-30 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Grace F. Napolitano* | CA-31 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Aarika Samone Rhodes | CA-32 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Norma J. Torres* | CA-35 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sydney Kamlager | CA-37 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sandra Mendoza | CA-37 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jan C. Perry | CA-37 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Linda T. Sánchez* | CA-38 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Shrina Kurani | CA-41 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cristina Garcia | CA-42 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| J. Nicole Lopez | CA-42 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Maxine Waters* | CA-43 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nanette Diaz Barragan* | CA-44 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Katie Porter* | CA-47 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Nadia Bahia Smalley | CA-49 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Kylie Louie Vie Benitez Taitano | CA-50 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sara Jacobs* | CA-51 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Cora Neumann | MT-01 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Monica Tranel | MT-01 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Penny Ronning | MT-02 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
ABC News reports that Zach Nunn is projected to win the GOP race in Iowa’s 3rd District. He’ll be squaring off against incumbent Cindy Axne this fall, in a race that will be a tossup come November.
With 26 percent of the vote now reporting in the GOP primary in Mississippi’s 3rd District, challenger Michael Cassidy still leads Rep. Michael Guest 47 percent to 45 percent. However, Guest may have a trump card up his sleeve in Rankin County, where he used to serve as district attorney and where no votes are yet reporting. Note that, if no one gets a majority here, the race will head to a June 28 runoff.
South Dakota’s Republican primary for its at-large congressional seat is now at 18 percent reporting and incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson has pulled far ahead of challenger Taffy Howard, 62 percent to 38 percent. Howard is running largely on a message of Johnson being a RINO’ she’s specifically called him out for refusing to back Trump’s Big Lie narrative around election fraud. Kaleigh, I’m curious if Howard is one of the Big Lie candidates who doesn’t seem particularly serious to you?
In New Jersey’s 7th District, ABC News reports that former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. is projected to win the GOP primary over 2021 gubernatorial candidate Phil Rizzo and state Assemblyman Erik Peterson. With 21 percent of the expected vote reporting, Kean is at about 52 percent, while Rizzo and Peterson are in the high teens. Kean’s victory sets up a rematch with Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, whom Kean lost to by a couple points in 2020. But given the environment and the fact the swing district got slightly redder in redistricting, Kean could be well-positioned to flip this seat for Republicans in November.
Latest count in New Jersey’s 7th District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, as of 9:39 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Kean Jr. | 7,989 | 51.8% |
| Phil Rizzo | 2,860 | 18.5 |
| Erik Peterson | 2,513 | 16.3 |
| John Flora | 782 | 5.1 |
| John Isemann | 610 | 4.0 |
| Kevin Dorlon | 520 | 3.4 |
| Sterling Schwab | 147 | 1.0 |
We’ve got more votes in the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 4th Congressional District, and Smith is still holding a comfortable lead. With 56 percent of the expected vote reporting, he’s at 57 percent, while Crispi is behind him at 38 percent. Still, for a relatively fringe-y candidate who didn’t get Trump’s endorsement, that’s a substantial protest vote.
With 53 percent of the expected vote in, state Sen. Zach Nunn is leading in the GOP race in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District. As I mentioned earlier, this is a noteworthy race because the GOP is hoping to ride Iowa’s continued shift toward Republicans and unseat the state’s lone Democrat in Congress, Cindy Axne. (She’s running unopposed in the Democratic primary in the district tonight.) Nunn currently has 73 percent of the vote, with Nicole Hasso, a financial wholesaler who has been outspoken against critical race theory, trailing with 20 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, Gary Leffler, the farmer who attended Trump’s Jan. 6 rally, is doing about as well as predicted with 10 percent of the vote.
We finally have some votes in the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 11th district — albeit not many. Five Republicans are vying to challenge Rep. Mikie Sherrill, and they run the gamut from an ordinary establishment candidate — Morris County commissioner Tayfun Selen — to Alexander Halter, a self-described “America First Ultra MAGA Trump Republican.”
Selen, a former local mayor, is likely the front-runner. He’s a Turkish immigrant and successful businessman with lots of name recognition in the district. Halter is a first-time candidate who works as a television producer. Other candidates include Toby Anderson, an Iraq war veteran and small business owner; Ruth McAndrew, a triage nurse; and Paul DeGroot, a former Passaic County prosecutor. With 10 percent of the expected vote reporting, Selen has 46 percent of the vote, DeGroot has 31 percent of the vote, Anderson has 17 percent of the vote, and the other two are in the single digits.
In New Jersey’s 10th District, Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr. is projected to have defeated primary challenger Imani Oakley, who tried to run to Payne’s left but came up very short.
Ah, memories …
Republican Senate Majority Whip John Thune is seeking his fourth term representing South Dakota, and he is now projected to have easily dismissed a couple challengers from his right with 73 percent of the vote in. Trump called for Noem to run against Thune in part because of his dismissal of Trump’s false claims about fraud in the 2020 election. A poll back in January actually found Noem up 49 percent to 40 percent over Thune in a hypothetical primary matchup, but Noem opted to seek reelection as governor instead.
With only early returns in, ABC News reports that Kristi Noem is projected to win the Republican primary for governor, setting her up for reelection in November. Noem was challenged from the right, but she had the institutional backing, fundraising and an endorsement from Trump.
Well, it looks like the people of New Jersey will likely be represented by another Menendez. ABC News reports that Rob Menendez Jr. is projected to win the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 8th District. It’s an extremely blue district, so the primary is the race that matters here.
I’m watching the Iowa Democratic primary for Senate tonight, and with 26 percent of the expected vote in, Mike Franken is pulling slightly ahead, with 57 percent. Franken is retired Navy admiral who said he decided to run after the Jan. 6 insurrection. “Having worked overseas and defended the American way of life and worked for this country so hard, I thought as life becomes more compressed over the age of 60, things that you do are more meaningful,” Franken told NPR. “I can’t think of anything more meaningful than to provide my expertise to maintain democracy in this country, because I saw it under threat.”
There are two Republican women governors on the ballot tonight — South Dakota’s Kristi Noem and Iowa’s Kim Reynolds — and both managed to escape a serious primary challenger. Here’s how Republican women are doing tonight so far:
How Republican women are doing tonight
Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Republican primaries in California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, as of 9:26 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Office | % Reporting | Vote Share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Reynolds* | IA Gov. | 2% | 100.0% | ✓ Won |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | IA-01 | 5 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Ashley Hinson* | IA-02 | 2 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Nicole Hasso | IA-03 | 53 | 19.6 | Trailing |
| Claire Gustafson | NJ-01 | 24 | 70.2 | ✓ Won |
| Susan M. Kiley | NJ-06 | 19 | 61.3 | ✓ Won |
| Ruth McAndrew | NJ-11 | 7 | 5.6 | Trailing |
| Rebecca L. Dow | NM Gov. | 5 | 14.2 | Trailing |
| Ethel R. Maharg | NM Gov. | 5 | 0.8 | Trailing |
| Michelle Garcia Holmes | NM-01 | 2 | 59.8 | Leading |
| Yvette Herrell* | NM-02 | 1 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Alexis Martinez Johnson | NM-03 | 8 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Kristi Noem* | SD Gov. | 8 | 77.6 | Leading |
| Taffy Howard | SD-AL | 8 | 38.4 | Trailing |
| Sarah Sun Liew | CA Sen. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jenny Rae Le Roux | CA Gov. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Christine (Chris) Bish | CA-06 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Karla Black | CA-06 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Tamika Hamilton | CA-06 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Eve Del Castello | CA-11 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Alison Hayden | CA-14 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Dalila Epperson | CA-19 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ceci Truman | CA-25 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Margarita Maria Carranza | CA-29 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ronda Kennedy | CA-30 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Paloma Zuniga | CA-30 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lucie Lapointe Volotzky | CA-32 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Melissa Toomim | CA-32 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Ariana Hakami | CA-36 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Claire Ragge | CA-36 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Aja Smith | CA-39 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Young Kim* | CA-40 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Allison Pratt | CA-43 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Michelle Steel* | CA-45 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Amy Phan West | CA-47 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lisa A. Bartlett | CA-49 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Renee Taylor | CA-49 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mary Todd | MT-01 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Coming out of the gate with 2 percent reporting in New Mexico, former police officer Michelle Garcia Holmes is leading medical sales representative and shooting range owner Louie Sanchez, 60 percent to 40 percent. Garcia Holmes lost the general in 2020 to Deb Haaland, but it wasn’t a massive loss and with redistricting making the 1st District more Republican, so Garcia Holmes decided to try again. Sanchez has pulled in a bit more money than Garcia Holmes, though, so it will be interesting to see how her name recognition stacks up here.
I mentioned I would be watching to see if some incumbents unexpectedly lose, but one incumbent whom I did not have on my list is Michael Guest of Mississippi’s 3rd District. However, he’s currently trailing Michael Cassidy, 47 percent to 41 percent. (It’s still very early, though, with only 8 percent of the expected vote reporting.) This could be an expression of the district’s dissatisfaction with Guest’s vote for the Jan. 6 commission; Cassidy has been working with a Trump adviser who has been defending some of the Jan. 6 rioters.
Yes, Monica, several of the New Jersey districts I’m following have gotten bluer with redistricting, too. For example, that three-way race between the yacht owner, the gym owner and the real estate developer — they’re all trying to go up against Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, who has been representing the district since 2018, after unseating longtime Rep. Tom MacArthur, a Republican. Kim had worked before as a national security advisor for former President Obama. The district is more Democratic-leaning under the new map, making it much safer for Kim. Previously, the district leaned Republican, according to FiveThirtyEight’s metrics, with a partisan lean of R+5 — and now it has a lean of D+9.
Still not a lot of the vote is in for New Jersey’s 5th District, but whoever wins the Republican primary will face incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer, and that district has only gotten bluer with redistricting.
Latest count in New Jersey’s 5th District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District, as of 8:45 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Frank Pallotta | 614 | 49.1% |
| Nick De Gregorio | 500 | 40.0 |
| Sab Skenderi | 77 | 6.2 |
| Fred Schneiderman | 60 | 4.8 |
I’ll admit, this one made me do a double take, but rest assured — former Tennessee Congresswoman Diane Black is not running for election as a Democrat in Mississippi.
Per the Associated Press, 9 percent of the expected vote is in from Mississippi’s 4th District, and it looks like Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo could face a runoff on June 28. He’s got a little less than one-third of the vote against six opponents. So while he’s in first, the fact that Mississippi requires candidates to win majorities in primaries to win nominations could be a problem for him.
Galen, I will take this opportunity to recommend to anyone interested in New Jersey politics the HBO short film “The Selling of Vince D’Angelo,” which stars Danny DeVito as a corrupt candidate for U.S. Senate. It’s hilarious.
Along with being Trumpy, Crispi has also endorsed the Big Lie. On his campaign website, it reads: “The 2020 election was the greatest crime in the history of our country.”
With 4 percent of the vote reporting in South Dakota, Dusty Johnson is leading challenger Taffy Howard, 64 percent to 36 percent.
We’ve been watching scandal-plagued Rep. Steven Palazzo in Mississippi’s 4th District, but it looks like his colleague in the 3rd District, GOP Rep. Michael Guest, might be in some trouble too.
Monica, that’s relevant to another race I’m watching — the Republican primary in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District. It’s between Bob Healey, a punk-rocker-turned-yacht manufacturer (yes, you read that right); Ian Smith, a gym owner who refused to close his gym despite the state’s orders in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic (and was recently charged with a DUI); and Nicholas Ferrera, a real estate broker. They’re all hoping to take on incumbent Democrat Andy Kim. With 14 percent of the expected vote reporting, Healey is ahead of the others, with 59 percent of the vote. Smith has 29 percent of the vote, and Ferrara has 12 percent of the vote.
Very little of New Jersey’s vote is in.