There are still a lot of uncalled races tonight — especially in California — but your indefatigable live blog crew is going to call it a night, as we actually have a pretty good sense of where most of these races are headed. Tonight didn’t carry too many big surprises either (although things in the Mississippi 3rd Congressional District were certainly closer than we originally anticipated). However, it did seem like there was a healthy protest vote out there tonight, as Republican incumbents in several districts, like New Jersey’s 4th, South Dakota at-large, California’s 22nd, Mississippi’s 3rd and Mississippi’s 4th, all turned in weak showings, even though none of them have lost reelection (yet).
But for the most part, a lot of our answers about who will ultimately prevail in these races is going to have to wait until November. It does look, though, that in some of the primaries — from former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. winning in New Jersey’s 7th District to state Sen. Zach Nunn winning in Iowa’s 3rd to Rep. Young Kim in California’s 40th — Republicans backed more mainstream candidates whenever possible. Democrats, for their part, have also backed more moderate candidates in races that look to be competitive come November. But, of course, it might be downballot races like the recall of San Francisco’s progressive district attorney, Chesa Boudin, and the neck-and-neck Los Angeles mayoral race between Rep. Karen Bass and billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso that end up overshadowing things tonight.
That said, the seven primaries still too close to call at this point are outlined below:
- The GOP primary for Montana’s 1st District is incredibly close, as former Secretary of the Interior (and former congressman) Ryan Zinke is in a dead heat with former state legislator Al “Doc” Olszewski. Both candidates have about 40 percent with about half the expected vote reporting. The winner will likely be favored over Democratic attorney Monica Tranel in November.
- Two Republican incumbents are up against the wall in two deep-red districts in Mississippi. In the 3rd District, Rep. Michael Guest trails Navy veteran Michael Cassidy, 48 percent to 47 percent, which would precipitate a June 28 runoff if both candidates remain under 50 percent. And in the 4th District, Rep. Steve Palazzo looks in really rough shape despite finishing first, as he has garnered only 32 percent to set up a runoff, likely against Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell, who’s at 25 percent.
- In the Republican primary for New Jersey’s 5th District, 2020 GOP nominee and investment banker Frank Pallotta has a narrow lead over Marine Corps veteran Nick De Gregorio, 50 percent to 46 percent. They’re vying to take on Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer, who spent some money of his own to boost Pallotta, as he sees the banker as a weaker general-election opponent. The seat was made more Democratic during redistricting.
- The Republican primary for New Jersey’s 11th District is still a close race between former assistant Passaic County Prosecutor Paul DeGroot, at 40 percent, and Morris County Commissioner Tayfun Selen, at 35 percent. Whoever wins will face a formidable foe in Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in this seat with a D+11 partisan lean.
- In California’s 9th District, Democratic Rep. Josh Harder leads with 43 percent of the vote despite this district being mostly new to him; Republicans Tom Patti and Jim Shoemaker follow with 26 percent and 10 percent of the vote, respectively. Given the district’s D+8 partisan lean, Harder should start out as the general-election favorite, but this race could get competitive in a red-wave scenario.
- In California’s 22nd District, Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas seems likely to advance to November, with 52 percent of the primary vote so far. By contrast, Republican incumbent David Valadao is all the way back at 25 percent. Right now, that’s enough to advance, but it’s a clear indicator of Republican voters’ discontent with Valadao, one of only 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. It’s even still somewhat conceivable that Trumpier Republican Chris Mathys (currently at 17 percent) could overtake Valadao for the second general election slot.
- In California’s 49th District, several Republicans are in the hunt to take on Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, who easily earned himself a spot in the general election. With about 57 percent of the vote counted, Levin had 55 percent, while his 2020 opponent, Republican Brian Maryott, had 17 percent. Orange Counter Supervisor Lisa Bartlett had 10 percent, and Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez had 9 percent. But there’s still a fair bit of Orange County left to county, which could help Bartlett squeeze past Maryott. Republicans hope to give Levin a scare this year, even though his district is pretty blue: Biden would have carried it, 54-43 percent.
The Associated Press has called the Republican nomination in New Jersey’s 3rd District for Bob Healey, who defeats Ian Smith 53 percent to 38 percent. Healey has been a strong fundraiser and should be a better GOP candidate in November than Smith, a gym owner who became a minor right-wing celebrity for his resistance of COVID-19 restrictions. However, Democratic Rep. Andy Kim will be difficult to dislodge regardless, given that his seat was shored up in redistricting.
AP projects that Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla and Republican Mark Meuser will advance to the November special election for the U.S. Senate, which will complete the final months of Vice President Kamala Harris’s term. (Fun fact: Meuser and Padilla also faced off in the last midterm elections, for California Secretary of State.) As we all know, California is a blue state and we don’t expect that to change this fall, but given the divisive state of politics and the fact that this will likely be a hard midterm year for Democrats, it’s likely that the party won’t take any chances that Padilla’s future in the Senate could hit a snag.
Checking in on California’s 47th, where just under 60 percent of votes have been counted. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is holding steady at 58 percent. Her top opponent, Republican Scott Baugh, is at 27 percent. They look set to face each other in a head-to-head matchup this fall.
About half the expected vote is in from California’s 45th District, and Democrat Jay Chen, a community college trustee, holds a slight edge over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, 46 percent to 44 percent. That pretty much guarantees they will be the two candidates to advance to November.
In California’s 40th District, it’s looking like a late GOP investment paid off for Rep. Young Kim, who has just 32 percent of the vote but is outpacing fellow Republican Greg Raths, who has just 20 percent. In the closing weeks of the race there were worries that Raths would make it to the general election instead of Kim, where he’d put the seat in jeopardy against Democrat Asif Mahmood (47 percent). But that outcome seems to have been averted, and Mahmood will likely face Kim in the fall.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 40th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 40th Congressional District, as of 11:53 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asif Mahmood | D | 32,069 | 47.3% |
| Young Kim* | R | 21,868 | 32.3 |
| Greg Raths | R | 13,044 | 19.2 |
| Nick Taurus | R | 802 | 1.2 |
With 28 percent reporting in California’s 42nd District, Democrat Robert Garcia is still in a commanding lead with 49 percent. Regardless of whether he faces Republican John Briscoe (currently at 24 percent) or Democrat Cristina Garcia (currently at 13 percent) in November, he looks like a solid favorite to head to Congress in this dark-blue seat.
Nothing projected here, but there are two candidates clearly running ahead in California’s 41st District with 68 percent of the expected vote reporting. Republican Rep. Ken Calvert has about 40 percent while Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, is at 39 percent. That puts Rollins well ahead of fellow Democrat and engineer Shrina Kurani’s 16 percent, likely setting up a Calvert-Rollins November race.
The eventual outcome is becoming more apparent in California’s 37th District, too. With about 50 percent of the expected vote in, state Sen. Sydney Kamlager seems all but assured to make the November general election with 44 percent of the vote. It might be too early, however, to know who she’ll likely face in the fall. Results so far show that L.A. Councilwoman Jan Perry and Culver City Mayor Daniel Lee are running tight in second at 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 37th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 37th Congressional District, as of 11:47 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Kamlager | D | 15,568 | 43.7% |
| Jan C. Perry | D | 6,575 | 18.4 |
| Daniel W. Lee | D | 5,887 | 16.5 |
| Sandra Mendoza | D | 3,260 | 9.1 |
| Chris Champion | R | 2,194 | 6.2 |
| Baltazar Fedalizo | R | 1,263 | 3.5 |
| Michael Shure | D | 896 | 2.5 |
We’re up to 50 percent reporting in California’s 13th District, and Gray and Duarte still occupy the top two slots. However, Phil Arballo — who is running as a more liberal Democrat than Gray — is still within striking distance.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 13th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 13th Congressional District, as of 11:47 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gray | D | 10,132 | 35.0% |
| John Duarte | R | 8,539 | 29.5 |
| Phil Arballo | D | 5,824 | 20.1 |
| David Giglio | R | 3,707 | 12.8 |
| Diego Martinez | R | 785 | 2.7 |
Nothing’s been projected yet with about 60 percent of the expected vote in for California’s 27th District, but it’s very likely we are going to get Garcia-Smith Round 3: The Midterm Matchup. GOP Rep. Mike Garcia defeated former Assemblywoman Christy Smith in a May 2020 special and in the November 2020 general election by a little over 300 votes, so they could have another very close election this fall, assuming there are no more surprises tonight. And with their leads, that seems unlikely: Garcia is at 43 percent, Smith is at 41 percent and the other supposedly competitive Democrat, Navy veteran Quaye Quartey, is way back with 7 percent.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 27th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 27th Congressional District, as of 11:47 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Garcia* | R | 21,984 | 42.8% |
| Christy Smith | D | 21,241 | 41.3 |
| Quaye Quartey | D | 3,342 | 6.5 |
| Ruth Luevanos | D | 2,961 | 5.8 |
| David Rudnick | R | 1,189 | 2.3 |
| Mark Pierce | R | 700 | 1.4 |
I’m still monitoring the results in California’s 15th District, but it’s looking like the eventual outcome is becoming more and more clear. With 58 percent of the expected vote in, Assemblyman Kevin Mullin leads with about 42 percent of the vote. He’s followed by David Canepa, who represents the far-left flank of the Democratic party, at 25 percent.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 15th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 15th Congressional District, as of 11:50 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Mullin | D | 21,839 | 41.6% |
| David Canepa | D | 13,062 | 24.9 |
| Gus Mattammal | R | 8,374 | 16.0 |
| Emily Beach | D | 7,191 | 13.7 |
| Jim Garrity | Ind. | 1,013 | 1.9 |
| Andrew Watters | D | 703 | 1.3 |
| Ferenc Pataki | Ind. | 295 | 0.6 |
The outcome is looking pretty clear in California’s 5th District. With about half the vote counted, GOP Rep. Tom McClintock leads with 42 percent of the vote, followed by Democrat Michael Barkley at 39 percent. Another Republican, Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig, has just 12 percent and doesn’t look likely to make the general election.
In fact, NBC has already projected the recall outcome: Boudin is out. This is a notable rejection of progressive criminal justice reforms in the deep blue city of San Francisco, just a year after school board recalls marked a rejection of some of the city’s progressive school policies.
With 45 percent of the vote in, the people of San Francisco appear to be on track to recall their district attorney by a 20-point margin. Progressive Chesa Boudin won a four-year term in 2019, but as concerns about crime gripped the city, he seemed to have lost support among local leaders like Mayor London Breed, who never took a public position on the recall.
We’ve got about half the expected vote in now from Montana’s 1st District, and Zinke and Olszewski are basically tied — Zinke leads by 3 votes. The eventual victor will be favored to win in November.
Latest count in Montana’s 1st District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for Montana’s 1st Congressional District, as of 12:02 a.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Zinke | 18,152 | 40.1% |
| Al Olszewski | 18,149 | 40.1 |
| Mary Todd | 4,766 | 10.5 |
| Matt Jette | 2,983 | 6.6 |
| Mitch Heuer | 1,162 | 2.6 |
In New Jersey, results from the AP show former Wall Street banker Frank Pallotta leading by about 5 points now over Marine veteran Nick De Gregorio in the race to take on Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer. De Gregorio came in as the favorite here, but Pallotta did have Trump’s backing in 2020 when he lost to Gottheimer. Democrats wanted Pallotta again instead of De Gregorio, even sending mailings out to GOP voters ostensibly attacking Pallotta for being too Trumpy, a not-so-subtle attempt to get them to vote for Pallotta.
In another not-so-shocking update, the AP is reporting that Democratic Rep. John Garamendi will advance to the general election in California’s 8th District. His opponent is yet to be declared, but it’ll likely be Republican Rudy Recile.
With a quarter of the expected vote reporting in California’s open 42nd District, Democrat Robert Garcia, the mayor of Long Beach, is ahead with 51 percent of the vote, followed by Republican John Briscoe with 22 percent. Garcia’s highest-profile Democratic opponent, Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia (no relation), is in third place with 13 percent.
The New York Times is projecting that Republican Brian Dahle, currently with 16 percent of the vote, will join Newsom in the general election. This goes without saying, but every expectation is that Newsom will easily walk away with a victory. This is a loss for author Michael Shellenberger, who tried to parlay his social media presence into an independent bid for governor, highlighting homelessness and crime.
With 18 percent of the expected vote reporting in California’s 22nd District, Democrat Rudy Salas is in first place with 43 percent, while incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao is in second place with only 27 percent. It’s early, but that’s a pretty bad number for Valadao, who was one of only 10 House Republicans to vote for Trump’s impeachment. Two other Republicans are combining for 30 percent, but as of right now, they’re splitting the anti-incumbent vote, throwing Valadao a lifeline.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 22nd District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 22nd Congressional District, as of 11:46 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Salas | D | 3,660 | 43.2% |
| David Valadao* | R | 2,283 | 26.9 |
| Chris Mathys | R | 1,654 | 19.5 |
| Adam Medeiros | R | 880 | 10.4 |
We have some early returns in the Los Angeles mayoral race. With 13 percent of the expected vote in, Rick Caruso leads Karen Bass, 41 percent to 38 percent. Unlike the statewide races, in which the top-two candidates advance to general election regardless of the primary margin, the L.A. mayoral race can be decided tonight with a simple majority. However, the final polls of the race suggest that Caruso and Bass are both hovering in the high 30s to low 40s, making it likely that we’ll have a runoff come November.
We’ve got nearly 70 percent of the expected vote in from California’s 41st District, and it looks likely that former federal prosecutor Will Rollins will be the Democrat to advance to the general election with Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. Calvert leads with 40 percent, followed by Rollins with 39 percent, putting him well ahead of engineer Shrina Kurani, the other Democrat in the race, who has 16 percent.
With 46 percent of the expected vote tallied in California’s 34th district, incumbent Democrat Jimmy Gomez leads with 53 percent, and Democratic challenger David Kim follows with 37 percent. Both are expected to advance to the general election for a rematch of the 2020 contest in which Gomez beat Kim by just 6 points. Kim is challenging Gomez from the left, accusing Gomez of not being a true progressive in their deep-blue Los Angeles district.
In California’s 27th District, we have around half the expected vote in, and it looks pretty likely that Republican Rep. Mike Garcia will meet Democratic former Assemblywoman Christy Smith for a third straight election after he won a May 2020 special election and the November 2020 general election over her. Smith was expected to have a fair bit of competition from Navy veteran Quaye Quartey for the second spot from this seat, but it currently is not remotely close: Smith leads with 44 percent, Garcia has 39 percent and Quartey is way, way back in third, with 7 percent.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 27th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 27th Congressional District, as of 11:33 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christy Smith | D | 20,258 | 44.3% |
| Mike Garcia* | R | 17,792 | 38.9 |
| Quaye Quartey | D | 3,144 | 6.9 |
| Ruth Luevanos | D | 2,814 | 6.2 |
| David Rudnick | R | 1,057 | 2.3 |
| Mark Pierce | R | 645 | 1.4 |
We’re also just now getting results from the 37th District. If you’ve been following this race closely, this shouldn’t be too big of a shock, but state Sen. Sydney Kamlager — who already represents most of the 37th District in the state Senate — is currently leading the pack with 44 percent of the vote. It might be a tough race for second vote-getter, however. Kamlager’s closest competitors currently are Jan Perry at 19 percent and Daniel Lee at 17 percent.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 37th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 37th Congressional District, as of 11:33 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Kamlager | D | 14,429 | 43.9% |
| Jan C. Perry | D | 6,073 | 18.5 |
| Daniel W. Lee | D | 5,507 | 16.8 |
| Sandra Mendoza | D | 3,012 | 9.2 |
| Chris Champion | R | 1,947 | 5.9 |
| Baltazar Fedalizo | R | 1,078 | 3.3 |
| Michael Shure | D | 831 | 2.5 |
With about a third of the vote counted in California’s 5th, Rep. Tom McClintock is in good position with 43 percent. McClintock could have been vulnerable because he currently represents just 40 percent of the new district, but his closest GOP challenger, Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig, is in third with just 12 percent. Democrat Michael Barkley is in second with 37 percent.
According to the Associated Press, incumbent California Attorney General Rob Bonta will make the general election. His opponent looks likely to be one of two Republicans, Nathan Hochman (currently at 17 percent) or Eric Early (14 percent).
In Montana’s 1st District, Zinke continues to narrowly lead Olszewski by a little less than 5 points, 43 percent to 39 percent, with 32 percent of the expected vote reporting. Still a long way to go in that race. But on the Democratic side, attorney Monica Tranel leads 66 percent to 27 percent over public health expert Cora Neumann, something of a surprise considering Neumann entered the home stretch of the race with around four times as much money in the bank.
Latest count in Montana’s 1st District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for Montana’s 1st Congressional District, as of 11:33 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Zinke | 12,791 | 43.8% |
| Al Olszewski | 10,967 | 37.5 |
| Mary Todd | 3,255 | 11.1 |
| Matt Jette | 1,492 | 5.1 |
| Mitch Heuer | 718 | 2.5 |
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 3rd District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 3rd Congressional District, as of 11:36 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kermit Jones | D | 31,913 | 43.0% |
| Kevin Kiley | R | 24,278 | 32.7 |
| Scott Jones | R | 12,314 | 16.6 |
| David Peterson | D | 5,699 | 7.7 |
Checking in on Mississippi, where the surprise of the night looks to be in the 3rd District GOP primary. There, Republican Rep. Michael Guest narrowly trails former Navy pilot Michael Cassidy by about 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent, with 82 percent reporting, according to the AP. If this result were to hold, the two would meet in a June 28 runoff since Mississippi has a majority requirement for candidates to win primaries. To the south in the Gulf Coast-based 4th District, a runoff is assured for embattled Republican Rep. Steve Palazzo, who has only 32 percent. He is in deep trouble there, and with more than 95 percent reporting, he’ll probably face Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell, who has 25 percent.
One more update from the AP — it’s reporting that Padilla will also advance to the general election for the Senate seat’s next full term this fall (no big surprise there). His opponent has not yet been declared, but Meuser is running second in this race, too.
The AP is also reporting that Newsom will advance to the general election this fall. His opponent is yet to be declared, but it’s likely to be state Sen. Brian Dahle.
The Associated Press has said incumbent Alex Padilla will advance to the November special election for U.S. Senate in California. One other candidate will join him. Padilla is currently at 56 percent, with closest competitor Republican Mark Meuser back at 20 percent. James Bradley, another Republican who challenged Padilla for his post, netted about 7 percent of the vote.
In California’s 49th, incumbent Democrat Mike Levin is sitting at 55 percent, while three Republicans are vying for the right to face him in the fall. Currently leading is 2020 general election candidate Brian Maryott, with 17 percent. Behind him are Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett, with 10 percent, and Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez with 9 percent.
We’re getting some results out of the 8th District, too. According to The New York Times, which has 16 percent of precincts reporting, Democratic Rep. John Garamendi leads the pack with 65 percent of the vote. (No huge surprises there.) His closest opponent right now is Republican Rudy Recile at 22 percent.
In California’s 45th, it looks like Republican Rep. Michelle Steel and Democrat Jay Chen, a community college trustee, are in good shape to advance to the general election in the fall. With 48 percent of the expected vote reporting, Chen is at 45 percent and Steel at 44 percent, while former Orange County Board of Education trustee Long Pham is in third with 10 percent.
In California’s 47th, just under 60 percent of the vote has been counted but the outcome here was never really in doubt. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is tracking to face former state Assembly Minority Leader Scott Baugh, a Republican, in the November general election. Porter currently has 58 percent of the vote to Baugh’s 27 percent. This is one of the few races Republicans hope to put in play in California this fall, as they believe Porter is too liberal for her Orange County district.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 47th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 47th Congressional District, as of 11:20 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Porter* | D | 40,005 | 58.1% |
| Scott Baugh | R | 18,576 | 27.0 |
| Brian Burley | R | 4,836 | 7.0 |
| Amy Phan West | R | 4,614 | 6.7 |
| Errol Webber | R | 857 | 1.2 |
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 15th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 15th Congressional District, as of 11:21 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Mullin | D | 18,267 | 42.7% |
| David Canepa | D | 10,267 | 24.0 |
| Gus Mattammal | R | 6,705 | 15.7 |
| Emily Beach | D | 6,197 | 14.5 |
| Jim Garrity | Ind. | 739 | 1.7 |
| Andrew Watters | D | 464 | 1.1 |
| Ferenc Pataki | Ind. | 173 | 0.4 |
We have 26 percent of the expected vote reporting in California’s 13th District, an open, Democratic-leaning seat with a partisan lean of D+7. Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray is in first place with 36 percent, while Republican John Duarte is in second with 27 percent. Gray and Duarte were both the preferred candidates of their party leadership.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 13th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 13th Congressional District, as of 11:21 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gray | D | 5,526 | 36.3% |
| John Duarte | R | 4,176 | 27.4 |
| Phil Arballo | D | 3,142 | 20.6 |
| David Giglio | R | 1,934 | 12.7 |
| Diego Martinez | R | 449 | 2.9 |
And we have some results: With about 64 percent counted in California’s 40th District, Mahmood leads the pack with 48 percent, while incumbent Kim has 32 percent. Raths, a Republican who House GOP leadership feared could outpace Kim, is in third with 20 percent.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 40th District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 40th Congressional District, as of 11:17 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asif Mahmood | D | 30,562 | 47.6% |
| Young Kim* | R | 20,233 | 31.5 |
| Greg Raths | R | 12,667 | 19.7 |
| Nick Taurus | R | 755 | 1.2 |
Why Are Republicans Spending Big On Rep. Young Kim?
Of all of the competitive House races in California this cycle, Young Kim’s reelection campaign in the 40th District was supposed to be the most straightforward for Republicans. Unlike every other vulnerable GOP member of the delegation, Kim’s seat was actually made more favorable to Republicans in redistricting.
So why has the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC closely affiliated with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, spent $900,000 — more money than it’s spent in any other district in the country so far — boosting Kim in the final stretch?
The answer lies in redistricting, and perhaps in another Republican running for the same seat: Mission Viejo Councilman Greg Raths, who has been the target of much of the CLF’s — and Kim’s — negative advertising.
Kim is a sitting member of Congress, and Raths is an underfunded challenger who’s been picking up shifts as an Uber driver during the campaign. But voters in the district may actually be more familiar with Raths than they are with Kim. That’s because, while the new 40th District is an amalgamation of six old districts, the bulk of its voters are in the old 45th, where Raths lost to Rep. Katie Porter in 2020 by 7 points, and not Kim’s current district, the 39th.
Kim previously appeared on the ballot for just 20 percent of the new district’s residents, while Raths appeared on the ballot for 66 percent. But among Republican voters, the skew is even more in Raths’s favor, because the parts of the old 45th District that are now in the 40th District lean more heavily Republican.
Republicans in D.C. believe there’s a real chance that Raths, not Young, could finish in one of the top two spots and advance to the general election. Then, they fear he would be a weaker candidate against likely Democratic standard-bearer Asif Mahmood. Not only did Raths lose in 2020, but he is a weak fundraiser, and he recently had to apologize for making anti-Semitic remarks. Mahmood’s campaign, looking to capitalize, has spent $400,000 boosting Raths in the hopes of getting a weaker opponent in November.
With about 30 percent of the vote counted in California’s 3rd District, it’s increasingly clear that Democrat Kermit Jones, a physician and veteran, will earn a spot in the November general election. Vying for the second spot are state Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, who is endorsed by Trump, and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones. Currently, Kermit Jones has 42 percent, Kiley has 35 percent and Scott Jones is in third with 16 percent.
Latest count in the top-two primary for California’s 3rd District
Results of the top-two primary for California’s 3rd Congressional District, as of 11:14 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kermit Jones | D | 12,915 | 42.2% |
| Kevin Kiley | R | 10,662 | 34.9 |
| Scott Jones | R | 4,850 | 15.9 |
| David Peterson | D | 2,155 | 7.0 |
The first votes are starting to trickle in in the California attorney general race. With an estimated 11 percent of the vote reporting, incumbent Democrat Rob Bonta leads with 54 percent. Republican Nathan Hochman is in second place with 23 percent. Independent Anne Marie Schubert, probably the only candidate who could give Bonta a scare in November, is in fourth place with just 7 percent.
With 11 percent of the expected vote in, Newsom has 58 percent of the vote and Republican challenger Brian Dahle has 18 percent of the vote. No surprises here.
It’s still early, but we’re starting to get some results from the California Senate races for the seat’s current, truncated term and the next full one. In both, Sen. Alex Padilla is leading his challengers. According to The New York Times, which has 9 percent of precincts reporting, Padilla leads with roughly 50 percent of the vote. His nearest challenger, Republican Mark Meuser, currently sits in second at 16 percent. The special election to finish out Padilla’s truncated term shows much of the same: With 9 percent of precincts reporting, Padilla currently leads with 51 percent of the vote compared to Meuser’s 24 percent.
ABC News reports that attorney Monica Tranel is projected to win the Democratic primary in Montana’s 1st District. She’s currently leading 2020 Senate candidate Cora Neumann, 66 percent to 27 percent, with about half the vote counted. It’s a new district based in the state’s western half, and it includes some territory favorable to Democrats, like Missoula. But it still leans Republican overall, making it a tough climb for Tranel, who lost a narrow race for the state’s Public Service Commission in 2020.
Alex, California’s 37th District is a fun one because it’s an instance of two candidates — in this case, Kamlager and Lee — facing each other for a second time, but for a different office. Last year, Kamlager demolished Lee, 69 percent to 13 percent, to win her state Senate seat.
The last California race on my radar is the open-seat race in California’s 37th District to succeed Rep. Karen Bass, who announced in September that she would instead run in Los Angeles’s mayoral race. The race to replace her in the historically Black-represented L.A. seat is somewhat competitive, but all signs ahead of tonight suggest that state Sen. Sydney Kamlager — who already represents most of the 37th District in the state Senate — is a favorite to advance to the November general election. Not only is she the top fundraiser in the race, but Kamlager also has dozens of endorsements from federal, state and local officials, including Bass and Newsom. Still, the field here is quite crowded, so it’s unclear who her most formidable opponent is. Other notable names in the race include L.A. Councilwoman Jan Perry and Culver City Mayor Daniel Lee.
At the top of the ticket in California, there is little doubt that Gov. Gavin Newsom will advance to the general election (and eventually win reelection). The question tonight is: Who will advance alongside him? It is expected to either be Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle or politically unaffiliated author Michael Shellenberger. In the most recent polling, Dahle led Shellenberger, 10 percent to 5 percemt. It probably doesn’t matter enormously, but as a general rule, it’s good to have your party represented at the top of the ticket, even if you are going to lose, to help drive turnout statewide, which can in turn help House candidates. If Shellenberger advances, the GOP will not be represented at the top of the ticket in California this fall.