FiveThirtyEight
Alex Samuels

It’s finally that time, Sarah! For all my California friends, here’s what to watch out for in the 8th District: The dark blue seat — which has a partisan lean of D+50 — will likely remain in Democrats’ hands this fall, but the question still remains of who will hold the seat, which was heavily redrawn during the reapportionment process. Democratic Rep. John Garamendi — who currently represents California’s 3rd District — is running for the seat, which includes Contra Costa and Solano counties. But he might face headwinds in his reelection campaign. For starters, as Geoff pointed out in his write-up earlier this week, the 8th District is way bluer than the light blue district Garamendi is used to representing; as a result, his more moderate voting record might be out of step here. The 8th District is also one of the most diverse in the region and it’s possible that voters don’t want a white septuagenarian as their representative. On the flip side, Garamendi doesn’t really face formidable opposition. But we shouldn’t discount the chance that one of the other three Democrats on the ballot picks up support tonight, even if they don’t beat Garamendi outright.


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