FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

As California results start to trickle in, let’s check in on those Mississippi Republican incumbents who are in trouble. In the 4th District, Rep. Steve Palazzo is at about 32 percent, per the AP results with 95 percent reporting, and has advanced to a runoff. But for an incumbent to be that short of 50 percent in a runoff state is no bueno, and he could be in serious danger of losing in a June 28 runoff against either Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell or banker Clay Wagner. Meanwhile, in the 3rd District, Rep. Michael Guest has trailed at times tonight, but now is narrowly above the 50 percent mark with 77 percent in. But he could still fall below that threshold and be forced into a runoff against former Navy pilot Michael Cassidy, who is at 44 percent.


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