FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

A runoff looks like a certainty at this point in Mississippi’s 4th District. And based on his current support, Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo is in a lot of trouble. Per the AP, he’s at 31 percent, well below the majority he needs to avoid a runoff. So the race is for second place here, and Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell and businessman Clay Wagner are split by just a few tenths of a point right now, so it’s impossible to say which one will advance with Palazzo (in all likelihood).


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