FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

Republicans Look For Silver Linings In The Golden State

California results should start dropping shortly. While the state doesn’t have too many swingy districts, there are a number of Democratic-held districts in California that Republicans hope to make competitive this fall.

In at least one of them — the 49th, which includes parts of Orange and San Diego counties — national strategists’ hopes are pinned on the right candidate progressing to the general election this fall against Democratic Rep. Mike Levin.

That’s why, in recent weeks, there’s been a big push by a who’s who of GOP megadonors to prevent one particular candidate — former San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott — from placing in the top two. Maryott was the 2020 nominee for this seat, losing by 6 points, and he’s also been endorsed by the California state GOP. But national Republicans fear he’ll be a weaker candidate than either of the two other Republicans in the field: Oceanside City Councilman Christopher Rodriguez or Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett.

A super PAC called American Patriots PAC, which is primarily funded by big-name GOP donors Ken Griffin, Charles Schwab and Paul Singer, has spent more than half a million dollars attacking Maryott and boosting Rodriguez.

Whichever Republican emerges will have an uphill battle, given that Biden would have carried this district by 11 points, and Republicans certainly don’t need to win here to reclaim the House majority. But that hasn’t stopped the party — led by Kevin McCarthy, a Californian — from spending real money to keep its hopes alive in Southern California.


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